Todays and Week of May 12 Recap

CHOPEX delivered. Pretty choppy price action. Or, we're so used to high volatility that a slow grind up feels like a chop. That's what actually got to me today. There continued to be no reason to get long given how extended we were, yet the trend has been too strong to short.

Unfortunately, I let that bias get in my way and really only considered puts the whole day. Luckily and thankfully I was as maniacal as I was yesterday focusing on identifying where price was - resistance or support. A proper entry at resistance and my willingness to scale in led to a very minor loss.

Minor loss, except for it being the only loss of the week! I actually think that was a detriment to my analysis. I wanted to keep a clean week and so I wasn't seeing price clearly.

Once we lost and then aggressively reclaimed the 10m21e, the grind up was on. My plan called for an entry in calls after a retest of this mornings break out. We got exactly that but I was eating lunch...

So, once we broke the call trigger and were unable to push significantly higher, I saw what I wanted to see... Which was a potential divergence forming on the 3m. Thankfully I waited until very close to the previous HOD to enter puts, so the loss was minimal. But disappointingly the correct mindset was: we have clear trend, dips to the ribbon or buyable. There was never any reason to consider puts, but that's all I could think of given how extended we are on higher time frames. Entry was solid and risk was managed so we'll take it as a win!

1 trade. 1 loss today. 1 loss for the week.

I took 8 trades this week. 7 turned a profit and the one loss detracted less than .5%. I also took 2 EOD trades. As a reminder, EOD trades are full risk trades (meaning I'm okay if they go to zero) using only a small portion of the profits on the day to enter into 0dte options with 15 minutes or less left in the day. This week I was 1 of 2 with a net positive impact on the portfolio.

Zooming out to the last 4 weeks. I took 42 trades, not including full risk EOD trades. 30 turned a profit for a hit rate of 71.4%. I took 8 EOD trades with a 50% hit rate. The winners out gained the losers and as a whole the EOD trades added 1.8% to the original portfolio balance.

Growth (loss) for the portfolio each week - All Trades

Week of April 21 16.9%

Week of April 28 8.1%

Week of May 5 4.4%

Week of May 12 8.6%

Today I'm transferring my profits for the past 4 weeks, resetting the portfolio balance starting next week.

This week was incredibly tough, as OPEX week tends to be. I'm happy with my trade selection and willingness to take profit quickly rather than hold out for bigger moves. My poor execution on Wednesday led me to really hone in on what matters as I'm analyzing the charts - are we at support? Are we at resistance? Whether I'm right or wrong about the direction, as long as I'm only entering at clear support or clear resistance, I'm minimizing the downside and shortening the time to profit. Tough but great week.