February 2

Sigh.

I 'missed' the rip. Then expected and waited patiently for a reversal. It started to happen. I hesitated and missed. Determined not to miss it again I sized in early, averaged down, averaged down. And from there unable to take the loss until it was massive. My ability to wait through a losing trade is unreal relative to my inability to let a winner run.

I exited some of the position on a rip that would have meaningfully limited the loss if I just exited everything but of course I convinced myself we'd continue and I could even get out of this trade with a profit.

And that''s the issue. I was focused on profit and loss. Not on PA and process.

We had been in a clear uptrend all night long. I wrote that dips were getting bought. We ripped and I flipped bias to downside. An error in analysis yes. But, not one that can hurt unless I compound that with an error in size. I said I would enter early with 1 with a clear stop loss.

I immediately entered with size and from then on the outcome was inevitable.

I know this. For a real trade, a real entry, just a few cons move the needle.

I have to defer to the 3m21e AND wait for price to react at pivot level that coincides with the direction.

All morning long previous resistance was breaking and turning as support. Dips to support were to be bought. Not trying to predict resistance and then assume supports going to break.

It's easy once I wait.

1 con

3m21e bias

PA At Pivot

What continues to happen.

I pick a direction. I hesitate. I get in. Then it either works. Or, it becomes clear I'm offsides, but bc I've sized, rather than taking the loss, I hope for a move in my favor.

In reality once I have the position on the PA becomes clearer to me. Hence my process is to absolutely only take 1 contract. Until it's painfully obvious.

Just now it became obvious. Dips to previous support, to the put trigger kept holding. But I was already in puts and despite exiting at the put trigger, I held out for a larger move. Mostly because I keep exiting early, and then I choose the wrong times to hold on. I knew I was wrong, and didn't flip bias or just exit.

I have to stop trying to make it all in one trade. 1 con. Add when obvious. Then multiple trades. Just grab a piece.

N=10000

So from +30% YTD to -20%YTD. Long year. Have to stop sabotoging myself. I clear commitment to

1 con to accept the loss

10m/H PA to derive bias

pivot pa cannot act outside of pivot levels

setup wait until an obvious pattern - morning/evening star or engulfing!

exit exit at next level, if does break can re-enter on pullback

repeat many trades

I suck at trend days because of patience. I have my levels to interact with based on 10m PA. Then if it rips away from me I no longer have levels to interact with.

But I have to have to have to wait for PA in pivot areas to engage.

It's the only way.

I came in today extremely emotional, angry, anxious. And my P/L proves that out.

Rishi