January 30 + EOM

Okay well, didn't quite heed my advice from yesterday.

I'm still just caving to my fomo. I have a clear thesis. It heads in my direction either I chase, size and exit quick, or I responsibly wait for the opposite swing pivot. But then of course as price rips to the pivot, I hesitate.

Happened 2x.

First on the AAPL IV Flush play.

Huge move down off the open. Crazy extended on the 3m and 1m. After 3mins and the 4th minute candle I wanted to get long around $4 the 250c. I didn't get in. I hesitated and we ripped to $6 in 3 to 4 candles. Missed out + Fomo. So, I think up. My thesis is a move to the put trigger. I enter. Obviously it's a shit entry. The real entry is, I have a setup and thesis for up, I enter near the previous swing low because that is ultimately the stop loss and real support.

We start moving down to the swing low and I start averaging down - again too early. I'm so worried it's going to rip without me like it just did, that rather than waiting for support and risk missing it I just add. This creates a situation where once it finally did what I thought I can't add more and worse I'm quicked to exit because I had to withstand such a stupid paper drawdown.

Cons dipped to $3.75 and I ultimately exited from a $4.80 avg between 5.50 and 6.80. When price hit the put trigger cons reached $7. $4 to $7 if I just waited for the previous pivot.

I need to get in just above a previous pivot with candle confirmation.

I need to get in at a previous pivot with candle confirmation.

I need to get in just below the previous pivot with candle confirmation.

Identify the previous pivots, wait wait wait for price to interact. Consider acting only in the prevailing direction (which pivot broke most recently). Then wait for price to hold or break. Then act.

My process has to be - setup, thesis, direction - THEN PAUSE AND WAIT FOR THE PREVIOUS PIVOT.

I keep convincing myself of EMA entries in between pivots. I have to wait for pivots and here's why:

The -618 was very oprn to the down side. We already pushed down to the 382, then ripped off the 3m48 up to PDC. Then we tanked through the 3m21 and 3m48 which is where I wanted to enter puts. Price pushed into the 3m21e which was the entry. I didn't take it. Then got in the next candle. So a worse entry. Price reversed and ripped all the way back up to the PDC aka previous resistance. Luckily I didn't chase calls at that point. I was still in puts and frustrated that I didn't enter near previous swing high as I should. Instead I entered after we lost the 3m48e and vommy. No a terrible play if I actually entered then. But I didn't.

But, I finally had clarity. -618 was the target. PDC had been resistance twice. Now it was a matter of waiting for candle confirmation at a previous proven resistance to enter puts. I originally entered puts at $15.. ran to $17 then reversed all the way back up to PDC down to $5... I entered at $6! The $6 entries were perfect. Price ripped to 17 but I essentially exited all contracts once I hit break even.

I have to return to entering 1 contract to allow for the clarity that I eventually got and add only at a swing pivot. I have to wait until candle closes. 3 minutes! Candle confirmation typically takes 2-4 candles closes. I just have to wait. My second entry was never in a drawdown. Final exits on the $6 contracts were $9.50 and $13.70. Seconds after I exited contracts ripped to $17. After bear flagging we dipped to a low of $6.5 and ran all the way to $40.

It's all about entering at the swing pivot waiting for the entry level or profit level to hit. PIVOT!

My issues continues to be FOMO. I enter. I size. I size. Then by the time it's very, very obvious I'm shook. Hence my process is to enter 1 con only. And, then wait, wait, wait for a pivot point, then wait for candle confirmation to actually size up.

It's as simple as the SRChannel indicator on tracing view. Which was the last to break? That's the prevailing direction. Defer to that, wait for CASPAR. Waiting for 6 to 9 minutes at a pivot / srchannel. That's it.

Have to get in there because even if it doesn't continue at least can take some profit or lose only little.

1 contract. Wait, wait, wait for candle closes.

January Recap

I got a little out of whack the last two days of the month. But given the early cushion from sound trading earlier in the month I was able to post a really profitable month.

P/L for January: +30%