July 30th JPOW at 2pm

FOMC meetings are always super volatile. I didn't trade at all this am because leading up to FOMC is always sideways action and it's silly to get chopped up before the volatility and direction actually emerge. Having said that there were actually some system entries, but I'm glad to have saved my capital for the actual announcement.

Analysis

Daily

Still bullish. Though we have put in an evening star reversal on the daily. Today will essentially confirm or negate the downside. A reversion to the mean would be healthy and is well justified given we've made higher highs in price with lower PO values. If we were to mean revert, the candle would likely wick near 6400ish and then descend from there. However, until after today we are still bullish with the ribbon and quarterly call trigger acting as support. Yesterday did create a bearish engulfing as the third candle in the evening star pattern.

4h

The 4h also remains bullish. As we chop in the ribbon around the 21e. RAF is signaling upside but we are in a strong squeeze. On SPX the Swing 500 was former resistance, turned support and not acting as resistance.

Hourly

PWH is the 70% retracement of yesterdays premarket high. Structure has solidly flipped to the downside though we're currently chopping sideways. PWC is currently acting as resistance with the put trigger and 200e below. On SPX we have a far more bullish interpretation on the hourly chart, with momentum trending higher. Though we could just be retracing to PWH.. before descending.

10m

10m is bullish on both charts. The day 386 has tapped on both charts. The ribbon is acting as support, with the 21e and call trigger as final supports before negating the thesis and signaling a move to the PDC.

Plan

Support at the call trigger holding would signal an entry for calls. A high volume break down would signal downside to the PDC. If we never visit the call trigger then I'll wait for price to react to the PWH. Same thing, resistance holds and enter puts. Resistance breaks with volume consider calls.

Recap

Trade 1

I said "Support at the call trigger (blue line) holding would signal an entry for calls."

At 2p we saw a lot of volatility only to end with an indecisive candle. While I wanted to take puts, the call trigger was holding and the ribbon showed a clear upward bias. The 210p candle confirmed this hold of the ribbon and call trigger and was plenty justified in entering calls.

Take profit was the next level up and then previous week high. And, that is what we got.

As it is what I do, I took profit far too early. My final exit was a 55% return but on the overall trade 23%. Profit is profit, done for the day!

Trade 2...

I was done for the day BUT I said earlier "we could just be retracing to PWH.. before descending" More clearly I wrote "I'll wait for price to react to the PWH. Same thing, resistance holds and enter puts."

Well, that's also what happened. A very clear rejection of the Previous Week High.

While I didn't enter at the previous week high (dashed green level). I did feel comfortable entering puts anyway because the incredible volume with which we rejected the previous week high.

Again, I exited far too early. My final exit returned 103% but the overall trade just 23%. But, again, profit is profit.

I also took one EOD trade. This is a full risk position, using only a tiny portion of profits. While typically small in size the percentage return on can be meaningful.

I entered at 1. Exited at 3. The cons ripped to 7 at my profit target... and then hit.... $14!!!