May 8th Recap and May 9th Plan

MAY 8TH RECAP

Yesterday was not great from a process and execution stand point. I'm lucky to not have ruined my week and risk mitigation was still front and center. But, I won't be doing that again. I didn't do my typical process of writing the plan out and sharing it. The consequence of which is that the 'plan' becomes more fluid. And, I do what I did yesterday which is not only enter as close to my stops as possible, but worse, taking a stop and entering the opposite trade at the opposite worst entry...

I wasn't 'wrong' with the analysis. Originally, I was thinking calls because we have a bullish ribbon with a 10m bullish tweezer. What I failed to see is that we were severely extended on the hourly and it was unlikely to continue quickly. I also made the mistake of zooming in, and interpreting the 'quick' drop as the start of a reversal, when it was just another test of support (10m21e and 500 level). That was actually the ideal call entry, and would've given me the margin of safety to WAIT for the next target to hit. Unfortunately I chased into calls late, forced to stop at the ideal entry, and WORSE, convinced myself to enter puts. Puts also ended up being 'right' but my entry was not at resistance (618 level) and yet again was unable to hold for the eventual dump, because I stopped out at the ideal entry.

I cannot and I will not trade without first posting my analysis and plan. I cannot and I will not trade without first posting my analysis and plan. Period.

Yesterday's stupidity detracted cost the portfolio 1.78%. While still up on the week, it's an unacceptable loss. I am totally content losing trades, as of course will happen, because no system is 100% correct. I am never okay with have a losing or winning trade as a result of improper execution.

MAY 9TH PLAN

On to today. I cannot and will not trade without first posting my analysis and plan.

On the daily chart, we continue to be stuck in range between the quarterly call and quarterly put trigger. Bears are making the case that we're unable to break through the previous LH / supply zone / last quarters put trigger, and therefore must just be creating an Equal High before tanking back to lows. Bulls are pointing to a flipping positive ribbon that has continue to hold as support and we're simply consolidating before the next leg up.

We have clear resistance around 5725 and very clear support at 5600. Until either one breaks we can't know the direction of the next leg, BUT given the Daily 8e has held as support since April 23rd, the bias is to continued upside. If then Daily 8e breaks I will then wait to see how we react at the quarterly put trigger before reevaluating my bias.

On the 4h chart we potentially putting in a higher high with bearish divergence. This would an indicate a move down to the 4h 21e as a potential scenario. Though unless the call trigger / 4h 8e are broken, there's no reason to short!

On the hourly chart we've also created a higher high paired with a lower high on the stochastic. As expected we saw a move down to the 21e which has initially held as support.

With the H21 currently acting as support on an already bullish ribbon, my bias for today is to the upside. Where is support? Consider calls. the 24/5 chart of SPY / ES is showing a much weaker bullish trend via a skinny / non sloping ribbon.

Today's plan... tough. We're consolidating between the daily put and call trigger. While the hourly bias is slightly up, the 10m is in a clear downtrend. We're currently approaching the H21 and 10m48e and previous support turned resistance and PDC... a clear break either way send us to LOD of HOD. At this moment it has proven to be resistance, so a put entry is justified.

Patience for entry is extra key, and if enter, quicker scaling out also prudent.

Where is 10m support? Where is 10m resistance? If at support, if it holds, enter calls. If it breaks wait for a lower time frame reversal off the retest to enter puts. If at resistance, if it rejects, enter puts. If it breaks wait for a lower time frame reversal off the retest to enter calls. This is always the case! CaS,PaR. Calls at Support, Puts at Resistance.