May 27 Prep and Recap

I read all of last weeks posts slowly. My biggest takeaways are how easy and confident I can trade if I just wait, wait, wait, wait, on the 10m chart. I like to zoom in lower, I like to predict direction, then get annoyed I didn't trade it when it runs in my favor. However, its ONLY on the 10m chart that I will ever be able to size up. So, there's no real point executing against the 3m chart. It requires extreme precision and insane size to move the needle. I will focus on my HTF thesis and bias. I will identify the 10m pivots and 10m S/R levels from the previous days. I will mark those and ensure if I'm considering an entry, it's in a discount. I will wait for price to yield a setup before even considering zooming in. I will wait to see how price reacts to the 3m21e. I will then identify the 3m pivots to optimize entry for CaSSL or PaRSH. Only then will I scale in, fully accepting the loss, knowing I can always get back in or take another trade. My analysis is good, so I will wait, wait, wait for price to reveal a clear setup. I will consider ITM in my attempt to hold until the next level is actually hit. Wait, wait, wait, wait, wait. Be bored. Do the hard thing. Miss trades. Just wait, wait, wait until its obvious. Always happens, so just wait. If it's not obvious, I wait.

Beige book tomorrow at 2p. Irrational volatility to be expected. Thursday am GDP and Friday am core PCE with sentiment at 10a. Volatile mornings to be expected.

The Charts!

The hourly chart. Very bullish but extended from the hourly ribbon and given we were already over +1ATR today it's tough to want to get long, while scary to short given the strength. A running theme lately.

The 1p and 2p established clear support and resistance

My bias was short given the overhead supply zone, the distance from the H21 and 10m divergence starting to form. However, as I re-read last weeks posts, my plan was to be ridiculously patient on the 10m. Until it became super obvious. Then if/when there's a setup, zoom in to the 3m and enter where we're potentially making a trappy pivot near the previous pivot.

I was waiting / searching for an indication on the 10m to get short. As we started to eat into the ribbon I zoomed to the 3m. I remained extremely patient. Not chasing the break of the 3/48 because the 10/21 was just below. Plus I only enter puts at resistance! But the second move down below the 3m/48 gave me more confidence (read: fomo) that we could vommy on the 3m. However, the 10m showed a dragonfly doji off the 10m21e. I chased into puts to not 'miss' the move. Then switched into calls. Only for it then to finally become clear.

We put in a scary/trappy lower low with higher low on PO. Classic W entry. BUT, because the risk reward was so low, plenty of reason to just not get in.

The could've would've should've trade. The real patience was the several wicks off the 10m 21. The dragonfly doji breaching below and ripping above the 10m21. And then the next candle holding dragon fly low. Only to finally breach the dragon fly low on the 3m and immediately wick right back up. That was when it became obvious. The quick trap below, and abrupt move up. Clear stop loss, clear entry.

In hindsight. I was correct in that upside was capped. But, then I was trying to find what I wanted to find versus deferring to the probabilities. Yes the 3m21e flipped but the 10m21 was just below. And that's all a 10m divergence suggest, a reversion to the 21e only. I got caught up in wanting a big dump like Wednesday and Thursdays but that was in a completely different hourly context. Also, when I finally did take puts we were far closer to support than to resistance. Especially on the hourly. It's imperative to focus on support and resistance.

I did an incredible job waiting, waiting, waiting. I entered early and then it became obvious 15 minutes later. Wait for obvious. The lower low with higher PO lo is my pattern, I just have to be patient enough to see it.

My desire to make profit led to sizing and losses. I was chasing. I was not confident and composed. I didn't accept the loss. Of course I took a large loss for the day and in hindsight if I was going to lose that much I might as well have gone into 0dtes with full risk. But that is not what I want to do because that won't lead to sizing up. I've just got to wait until obvious.

Also, what. I waited, waited, waited, waited to take a trade. Then took 6 trades in 15 minutes. That's not what I do. I'm slow. I'm confident. I'm composed. The burn on the portfolio could've and should've been so much greater.

Progress Over Perfection

I was extremely patient today. Just needed to wait 15 minutes more. It finally became obvious, so I entered calls but tiny size and mentally shot. I entered $3-$4 we dipped to $1.50 and cash settled at $6.5. The thesis was correct once it was obvious. My scarring from earlier had me exit earlier. Great job exuding patience. Just need to exude a little more. There also needs to be an acceptability that it's okay not to trade.

Frankly, I'd be better off.

For tomorrow: Hourly support / resistance. 5m pivots. 10m setup (W off 21 or bearish tweezer top). Enter as close to SL as possible. I've got this.