May 14...

TLDR; Green but not proud.

Process. Over. Pride. P. O. P.

It's in the name. Focus on the process.

Lately, I've been feeling frustrated that I haven't been able to trade the open, which is typically when all the volume and movement happens. Today I got to my computer right near open. Rather than fulfill my process, I "saw" a very clear setup.

A very bullish hourly ribbon supported by bullish 4h and daily charts. On the 10m we created a divergence off the H21 and ripped this morning. Mean reversion was signaled, price moved down to the 10m21e and it held as support for 30-45 minutes. 10m21e = clear support. Previous day high and then the call trigger as potential profit targets.

Or, I saw what I wanted to see.

Market opened. And we headed higher. Multiple pullbacks to the 10m21e but I wanted to wait / hesitated. Then when the 3m fully closed, only then did I enter calls far closer to resistance than to supply. My plan was also a very typical continuation from within the ribbon or vommy below PDC. While we did lose the 10m 21, we were only probing the premarket support. I averaged down in my position there too essentially break even on the trade.

I was impatient. I was annoyed I hesitated than compounded the mistake by not waiting. All to eventually add calls where I should've only considered entering to begin because that was actual support.

Conducting the process may have had me far more hesitant to enter calls given the 8a candle clearly rejected the MD +1 level AND put in a potential star of an evening star reversal.

The analysis was no different than yesterday. Too extended to enter calls, to bullish to enter puts. Wait, wait, wait. I did not wait.

WORSE! After exiting tiny green only after severely averaging down, I then considered puts given we didn't push higher. Of course rather than entering those puts in the ribbon, I entered after a violent tank to previous support. Aka the amateur worst possible entry. I had to wait nearly an hour before getting into profit, not because the thesis was wrong, but because the entry was hilariously off.

I'm consistently amazed how clear the direction becomes once I'm already over positioned in a trade. I held the puts despite to scary pushes up, because we were simply at previous resistance and unable to breach the previous swing high. If I had mental or financial capital, I felt clear enough to enter there. Instead I just felt comfortable holding a large loser until we finally emerged green.

Sad call entries at two arrows near resistance. Avg'd down at support to exit green in the circle. Then wanting to take puts at the circle, only to enter at support and have to stomach major drawdowns while resistance held and support finally broke.

I cannot and I will not ever had the confidence to size how I want if i continue to execute poorly. Not even executing the trade poorly, but executing the process from the get go.

Process. Process. Process. I'm considering getting rid of the EMA's because despite knowing they are simply shorthand for structure / trend, the real entries and exits occur at horizontal demand and supply.

If we're near resistance I can only consider puts.

If we're near support I can only consider calls.

Therefore, I need to constantly monitor where I am relative to support and resistance.

Vs. We're going up, where's a justifiable entry.

Spin Zone - I've had plenty of days of poor execution like this in the past. But today I ended green. Not because I got lucky, but because I did less. I stepped back, looked at the PA and determined what was actually going on. Where should I have gotten into either trade. Why despite the drawdown the thesis was not proven wrong. If only I could enter with conviction as much as I'm ultimately able to hold with conviction.

A disaster of a day on the execution front. Somehow a green day in the books...

I'll never time the bottom or the top. But, I'd like to point out how wide the range was between max drawdown and max sell, especially relative to what I actually earned on the trade.

Trade 1 - 28% gain if entered at the low and exited at my max sell. Yet, I captured just 3.2% on my average entry vs max sell. 21% on lowest actual entry to max sell.

Trade 2 - 145% gain if entered at the drawdown point and exited at my highest sale. Yet, I captured just 8.9% on my max sell.

Bottom line. If I was willing to hold through those drawdowns, I think about what I would've done if I sized small enough to add at those drawdown points. Or better yet not enter until those low points to begin with.

I do NOT want to engage in the could've should've would've. Instead I will focus on how to avoid today's chaos going forward.

1. Do the process of creating the plan.

2. Size based on my R value, only.

   1. System setups and entries yield large winners- I do not need size to move the needle!

Sigh.

Side note. Common thought process. We move up, okay calls, but now I have to wait for support. It keeps going up, I missed it. Or it gets back to support and now I'm thinking puts. The real mindset is not the direction but rather the current location! Are we at support? Are we at resistance? Are we no where?

END OF DAY TRADE

I did the side note! This is how I want to trade. No matter how many times I got caught up in thinking oh it's going up, or oh it's going down. I pulled back to thinking, well are we at support or are we at resistance? I did this for about 45 minutes and perfectly mentally traded (way easier risking real money). Then we started to near support again, and on the 1m chart it seemed like there would be divergence.

Entry at the arrow. Price went on to make a LL, while PO made a HL. Exited once the con went ITM.

I contemplated entering at 3:43. Support held at 3:44 and I entered calls. As is my fate I was early. I was playing for an equal low in price and higher low on PO. But, proper divergence is a lower low in price with a higher low in PO. Well, we got the lower low in price and bounced at support. If I waited for that entry, I'd have gotten in 20% below my actual entry. However, I was prepared for the full risk, so it didn't matter anyway. HOWEVER, I accidentally bought 2 contracts, and so once I realized that I exited the first just over break even and the 2nd with a profit of 150%.

Pretty poor day in execution only to full redeem myself and regain my confidence, not because of the outcome, but by practicing my process. Questioning where we are NOT where we're going.