June 11 Plan and Recap

Today's analysis was very similar to yesterdays. All timeframes were very bullish. There were clear justification to expect further upside, it was just a matter of finding the right entry. CPI data was released at 830 and absolutely ripped the market. Until open we were steadily pulling back to the ribbon.

Given yesterday's crazy tank, I was more cognizant ahead of time as to where I'd be compelled to stop myself out. Was I willing to enter early and hold through the drawdown? While I was and did yesterday I just didn't want to live through that stress again. Best to "miss"!

The plan called for patience in the 10m ribbon. As you can see in the plan, the only justification for puts would be a close below the put trigger and premarket low. Put another way, the stop for calls would only trigger on a close below the put trigger. To minimize my loss potential on calls, entering in closer to the put trigger offers better risk / reward.

So, enter early and stomach the drawdown or expose myself to potentially missing the trade? Well TIAAT so might as well be okay missing it. I'm glad I did because eventually the trade become a little bit more confident an probable.

1st 10m candle the 10m21e and PDC held. 2nd 10m candle wicked off of yesterdays key pivot and again held the 10m21e and PDC. I could've entered or scaled in there. Instead I waited for the 3rd 10m candle which formed the Pop Cap logo, a morning star reversal.

I wanted to wait to enter because there's always another chance to get in! I didn't wait. I entered and that's when it became clear to me where I'd want to enter more potentially. It wasn't until I entered that I understood the likely pullback and ideal entry.

Before entering the trade I was only thinking it's going to go up, I'm going to miss it, must get in. Then I'm in the trade I'm able to see a bit more clearly where would be a better entry if it didn't just continue straight up (which it never does...).

First arrow is the oversized entry, 2nd is the calmer more measured entry. The thesis was always a move up to the call trigger, but instead I took profit. NBD. I'm learning. 10m 1dte trades take longer to play out and I have to be comfortable holding through the wiggles. I'm not there yet, so taking profit consistently is plenty worth it to build confidence and consistency.

The drawdown from my first entry was only 10%. That's nothing. And, holding until the call trigger target yielded 20% to 35%. The probabilities were very great for a call trigger touch. I will continue to build confidence in the system and hold on for longer. It's also easier to hold if I size smaller. But, profit is profit!