11.5

Daily

Still bullish. Yesterday the D21 and previous resistance acted as support. We have the quarterly GG play open up to SPY 700. If we lose previous resistance, then PQC and D48 is next up. I could see us trapping late shorts down there before moving higher. On SPX we've already rejected the quarterly call trigger, but the 21e held. PO is trending down but not curling yet. Daily bias is bullish. We may find support here and long term calls could be an interesting play.

4H

SPX 4h is looking vommy but we had to candles hold the 48e and monthly put trigger. Until the put trigger fails AND resistance holds, there's no reason to consider short.

On SPY, we dipped below the monthly put trigger but held at the 200 and previous resistance. Double dot on PO signals a likely move up to the 21 -- about 8 points higher from here. Next level up is about 70 points higher. We're about 60 points above support now.

Previous resistance is acting as support but the ribbon is bearish.. On the other hand we have 2 dots on the PO suggesting further upside.. Structure has flipped down on SPY but SPX still holding bullish.

Hourly

On SPX we closed in the bull gap from last week. Direction is clearly down and would make sense to fill the gap before heading up. The MD 382 has been tapped meaning the 500 and 618 are more likely. The 618 roughly lines up with the bottom of the bull gap.

On SPY the MD 618 already hit, was reclaimed on a move to the 21e, then retested again ultimately putting in a HL with the 618 as clear support. If the hourly closes above the H21, H48 up next, then MD put, then PWL. But, moves into support would be required to enter calls. Ideally a W with divergence. H48, MD Put is resistance. MD 618 is support, maybe the 500. We are squeezing on the hourly. Bias is tough. On the one hand both charts are down and it makes sense to close the gap.

Could enter long term calls and trade the downside on the short term?

If I was trading the hourly... I'd wait for the MD put trigger to consider puts and wait for the MD 618 to consider calls.

10m

We've flipped bullish and currently trying to breakout from previous support, turned resistance, and now maybe support?! 10m conviction arrow fired, we pulled back to the ribbon held and are now ripping into the 10m 200e. We're above PDC. If the ribbon holds and PDC hold then call trigger is up next which aligns nicely with yesterdays -1 level. If we break from there then the 618 aligns with PDH. 6820 SPX is yesterdays high. 6750 is day put trigger. The ATR is currently 70 points.

Not the strongest ribbon and the hourly is down. Probably need some more consolidation before making the next move. VIX is vommying and conviction arrow has fifred. A move off PDC back up to the ribbon and call trigger may be in order before continuing down. Especially given VIX PO is in the accumulation zone.

Similarly the 10m SPY PO is in distribution zone with PO dot trying to fire. This tracks given we've moved up quite a bit and now I'd have to wait for the ribbon to hold or fail to vommy to then get in on upside. Or if PDC / 10m48e breaks, then down to the put trigger. We are IN THE BOX so also good to just wait.

News at 945a and 10a. Wait for obvious.

10m plan. Wait for price to react to the 10m48e.

6790c or 6755p --- Could go 6800c and 6750.

6800c 10m bull flag break with ribbon flipping. Retest of $5.5 before a move up to 12?

6790c 10m conviction just fired. Similar potential. $7 to $14?

6750p bearish but currently at yesterday low with higher PO. Could be a point to flip, but ribbon thickness suggest it would take time. 3m shows double dot so move to 21e before a W?

Immediate bias is upside but the better R/R entry is after a move down holds.

Where will I exit on the 10m if I'm wrong?

Picture perfect. Got caught up being too aggressive early but plan very much worked out. Needed a bit more patience on the calls. They did exactly what I said.

Look at the 6800c

Remember I said 6800c 10m bull flag break with ribbon flipping. Retest of $5.5 before a move up to 12?

Here's the 6800c chart...

Unfortunately. I got in early. And, zooming into the 3m got faked out. The plan was based on the 10m. Nothing on the 10m changed. I just needed to wait for the 10m to confirm direction a couple candles. I was thinking oh I'm going to miss it - rather than, what has to happen on the 10m to invalidate my plan? Get in close to there, and let the probabilities play out. Only a few cons were required to match my P/L for today with oversized trades.

Amazing plan, shit execution. I'm not going to miss it!