10.31 Last day of the Month

I will establish - like Mancini - levels with which I'm willing to engage at. Outside of that I will let price do it's thing.

Daily

Everything still bullish. Quarterly call trigger and Daily 8e held as support yesterday. SPY overnight retested both and again we bounced. We did get down arrows firing on RAF and a mean reversion dot on PO. Doesn't mean we revert immediately, just less LIKElY to rip higher without a deeper pullback.

4h

618 hit yesterday. 21e and bull gap held as support. Structurally I'd like to see a deeper higher low. 6750ish would be a 70% pullback of the most recent move up. Plenty of room down, though the bias is still up given the ribbon. Both charts fired a PO dot and both have tested the 21e. All reversals start as a reversion, but not all reversions become reversals.

Hourly

On SPX the hourly lost the 48e. The 21e is very clearly resistance. 6850 was support for a large part of yesterday and it was lost. Unless it's convincingly recaptured on a closing basis then more downside is likely - down to the bottom of the bull gap first at 6805 and then PWC at 6790. Top of next gap down is 6770. Hourly on SPY structure has flipped down with a very skinny ribbon. MD 618 was the supply zone from yesterday that sent us down to the tap the MD call trigger and hourly 200e. On the flip side a tap of the 786 puts MD +1 in play.

If I were to play 7dte off the hourly. HTF is bullish. I'd wait for a clear hold of PDL or a clean break of the supply zone at the MD 618 to take calls. A move up to the 618 and supply zone with a reversal pattern would be the sign for puts only down to the MD 382 - call trigger - PDL.

10m

Tiny trend brewing. Mostly sideways with the daily 618 as support and +1 as resistance. 20 point range. Play inside or wait for the break out. Either way I won't engage until we're near the 618 or +1. The 786 is the midpoint for action overnight. It was support this morning and now the 21e and it are acting as resistance. There is some justification for a scalp down to the 618.

On SPX it looks like we'll open above the 48e signaling an iVom. But, it'll be near the 618 which coincides with where we dumped from late yesterday. If we clear the 618 for 3+ candles, more upside is likely. If we can't then a move to the daily call trigger and potentially PDC.

Let's see how price reacts to the SPX 618 and the SPY 786.

VIX made a LL with higher PO. 21e is now support with 48e as resistance. But, 21 trying to flip green. VIX ivommy signals downside the more likely direction.

6840p is the Day call trigger. 6890c the Day +1.

Okay bias correct. We tanked down off the open. 6840 from 7 to 14.. I didn't take it. I'm feeling so much angst / annoyance / frustration that I didn't take it. aka maybe a sign for calls? Or not necessarily calls but certainly not the time to enter puts! I can wait.

I got in too early. I feel that. But now don't want to exit too early and then have it rip in my favor. Thats the emotional state right now. Ignoring part of me that says I was too early for fear of missing the move I'm already in... feels like a smart place to just exit and on to the next one.

Okay not bad. Now can I wait long enough for 3m21e to regain. Resist thinking we're going to full on reverse up. And scale in when I think I'm wrong, and add if/when the 3m21e is lost again??

Here comes the oh fuck I'm wrong when in reality we're at the 3m21e and the 10m8e..

I may miss it but I will wait several 3m candles to ensure the 10m8e is resistance. I'm definitely feeling wrong because on SPX it looks like a classic ivommy. An hour of holding the 10m48e and 21e with the flip to green? And a clear trend line break. But this is typical as we get closer to where I should actually enter puts, I believe I'm wrong and we're headed up...

I'm feeling so strongly that I've missed the obvious upside move and we're going to rip higher. Especially with the 3m squeeze. Though I guess this is what I said I'd do. Wait for the 3m21e to recapture. Then scale in and then add if/when the 3m21e is lost..

The 10m closed in the ribbon. But that's fine it's continuation or vommy at the 48e! Still downside. But, the scary scary dip eventually held the SPX bullish ribbon 3m21e... That's when I wanted to potentially take calls but my bias still very down because of the 10m. Of course calls went 7 to 11, and can run more given the squeeze hasn't fired. At first I was reluctant because the call premium ribbon was so thick.

Now we're at the 10m21e with the 3m21e turning green..

No reversal signal back down yet. But man I feel silly not having taken calls after the massive wick off very clear support.

I was aware of notice the huge vix gap. It got filled and now we're headed back down?

It worked. I just needed to defer to the bias. Then wait wait wait for a 3m swing high to establish resistance. Nibble at resistance, then load up after the loss of the 3m21e.

Of course I didn't wait long enough and exhausted myself by taking puts early/late/exiting only for the original thesis to work out. 3m swing established reistance. That was the stop loss / ideal entry. Then down to support!

I was aware of the 3m swing high forming. I was aware of the resistance created. But every move into resistance scared me. But, if I waited even longer it became obvious on the 10m. We had a 10m bearish engulfing. And as I was hoping we lost the 3m21e. It's just a matter of waiting waiting waiting.

What I wanted eventually happened. Recapture the 3m21e then lose it as a trigger for entry. Once we lost it the cons were at 8.4. We immediately pumped to 9.8ish before a scary rip back up to the 3m21e forming a bullish engulfing. But, the clarity came from the 10m bearish engulfing and that was just a pullback before we went.

I exited at the next level down - good job by me - at 11.4 or 35%. But ultimately we tapped the LOD at which the contracts hit $16... or 90%.

Waiting, waiting, then waiting more seems to make this pretty easy. I feel like now it's very clear we're establishing a double bottom with divergence. So longer dated calls is not a terrible play here. But, I'm not accepting the loss so I won't just buy 1 and see what happens.

I'll build on today's patience and clarity of execution.

Price needs to get to a 10m level of interest. Then if there's multiple candles of stalling, then we look to the 3m structure and act accordingly. Just need more reps acting like this and we'll be good to go.