July 24

I said yesterday:

Tomorrow I will be equally patient.

I will write out my justification here.

I will size smaller and let it play out.

And, Friday:

I need to write a paragraph justification for a trade which covers:

• HTF directional probability with clear identification of support and resistance levels

• 10m interaction with ATR levels, what's therefore likely?

  • Where was previous support? Previous resistance? 70% retracement?

• How would the 10m candle have to close to invalidate the direction?

• And, have to accept the loss so that I can execute the plan clear headed

Daily

Bullish AF, made ATHs, price discovery ahead

Quarterly Call trigger hit. 80% for 6420 by October

RAF fired up.

4h

SPX squeeze started to fire up

Monthly 386 hit. 80% of 6387 by EOM and 65% of 6430 by EOM.

Currently extended from the ribbon

SPY - low momo pullback to the ribbon. 8e holding for now

PO in distribution zone

Hourly

SPY divergence and mean reversion complete. MD 386 clear resistance. H21 is clear support with a probe below to premarket low. 80% to hit 500 level by tomorrow.

SPX hourly is extended from the ribbon. Could see a pullback to the ribbon/MD call trigger/PWH before any continuation.

10m

Straight sideways. No direction. In the trigger box. Current range is premarket high and premarket low. Bias is up given hourly. In the Scalp trigger box as well... Currently previous close and previous day high acting as resistance, but we're also right at support / the hourly 21. Ribbon has no direction. Swing pivots are essential for any consideration of a trade.

Explain it to ?

The bias is up. So we wait for price to react to support. Screw the wiggles between. If we hold support then the next test of support we'll enter calls. Without being scared, because we'll size small enough that if it doesn't play out, it's all good. Right now on the 10m we have support at the H21 and resistance at the previous day close. The 3m is potentially trying to ivom but entry would only be at support and we'll wait for a squeeze. High level we're just flagging. With the 386 tapped we should see continuation up, but we need to probe support first. Vix is aggressively dropping but currently extended from the ribbon and finding some support potentially at the put trigger. Perhaps a move up to the ribbon or PDC before further downside.

We're still just bouncing in the range. Resistance held. Support holding. Bias still up. Thursdays gap fill percentage is high so perhaps wait for a tap of PDH on SPX before moving higher. But the 3m21e held. Could just rip here to Scalp 618. Perhaps a trap move up past the premarket high then reject. Best is to wait for a real attempt to break the range then get a late pullback or if there's momentum enter on the break. Vix is signaling a mean reversion. And, we're getting it currently. News at 945a and 10a! Extra patience. It always becomes obvious. Vix mean reversion tapped. 10m forming a tweezer top potentially? Though previous support and h21 holding for now. Potential call entry here, especially given the vix ribbon holding as resistance again. I'm feeling a lot of fomo here. I wanted to buy calls. I had the justification for calls. Cons went 7 to 11. But, it wasn't obvious and I didn't miss anything. There's always another trade that's actually more obvious. I will wait.

Okay. It wasn't crazy obvious but the huge takeaway from today was that as long as I entered CasPar it was going to be okay. I was able to size because the drawdown at CasPar was never scary.

So, the trade:

Two ten minute candles confirming resistance at the call trigger.

So we confirmed that the call trigger was resistance over 20 minutes. However, I actually got in after just the first 10 minute candle confirmed resistance. I ultimately did this because I'm scalping the trade. When scalping I don't need price to go far, I need to enter at CasPar and be quick to take profit. Which is what I did!

I held runners and it became clear we were going to form my favorite setup. M with divergence. At this point I could've added back in. Especially because on the 10m a rejection of the call trigger means a likely test of the PDC. That entry would've been very ideal. I had the clear justification of M with divergence, and being the second move it was far more explosive and longer.

But, rightfully so I didn't want to turn a green day into a red day. So, I was content capturing the larger move with just my runners. I left some money on the table because I was 'hoping' for more continuation, when in reality I should've have just exited at the next level and captured a 65% exit on those cons.

Regardless great trade. I waited til we were at 10m resistance. I waited for it to confirm as resistance. I entered as CasPar and took profit swiftly.

Good calm easy trade.

They keys were writing out all my thoughts. Getting them out of my head and clearer on paper. Waiting until obvious. Not caving to fomo. And entering at CasPar.

I will do that every day next week.