July 18

I don't want to trade. Extreme patience. Firm essay justification.

Hourly

Bullish ribbon. H21 and MD Call trigger acting as support. 9a hourly attempted to break out then made and equalish high with PO divergence. MD Call trigger previous support see if it acts as resistance? Or gets reclaimed. Starting to squeeze.

10m Chart

Call trigger was clear resistance. No ability to break above it. That's the point where the ribbon firmly shifted down. PDH initially acted as support, but a rejection of the call trigger signals a move to PDC. Which we got in addition to a loss of the H21. The 10m 200 is now acting as support, but now resistance. I will have to wait and see what happens.

Essay.

The hourly is bullish. The H48 coincides with the daily put trigger. We've flushed below the H21 so a test of the 48e might make sense. But, the entry for more downside is in the ribbon near PDC. We're currently holding at a previous hourly resistance level. And looks like we're forming a morning star reversal back into the ribbon. So, perhaps I missed the obvious tank move and now it's a matter of entering calls at support to get back to the ribbon, especially given the hourly is bullish. Or, wait for the move back to the ribbon. See if it continues to act as resistance, then enter puts. Ultimately the trend is down, we rejected the call trigger, we lost the PDC. Need to wait for a retest of the ribbon and PDC before entering puts for an expected move down to the put trigger.

The plan is to wait until the ribbon and PDC to consider entering puts. If are making a low here, the 70% retracement aligns up the SPX call trigger. I could see us probing up there. And then if it starts to reject again puts make sense. IF we rip through it then I can always wait for a ribbon entry to take calls. I will wait to react.

SPX PDC and 10m 21 currently acting as resistance. Can consider entering puts there. Same with 10m200 on SPY. And, there's the move down to the put trigger. Levels work. We broke PDC, several attempts to to test the ribbon before making a move down to the put trigger. Now we're putting in a bullish engulfing potentially. But the ribbon on SPY still acting as clear resistance. Same with PDC on SPX. Clear divergenec on the 3m. Quick move up to the 3m21 likely. That would be the put entry for continuation. Though because the trigger box is the current range. Perhaps no continuation and we just get a move all the way to PDC and then on to the call trigger?

On the hourly. The hourly 21 was support. We just lost it at 10a. It would make sense to go retest it and potentially the MD call trigger before dropping further.

I feel good about continuiation. Now it's a matter of being patient enough for resistance. And being content missing it.

Damnit the previous week high held as support. I knew it was going to rip face but because I oversized into puts I was unwilling to exit. Then convinced myself of it more and now I'm so painfully underwater with no relief in sight.

Welp there we go the put trigger. If I could have just waited for the put trigger before exiting! But I was so hellbent on not getting out near break even because I would've felt so stupid if I didn't and I took a huge loss. MORE CONFIDENCE in the analysis and ATR levels to actually hold until. My first exit was at 10.55 - 1 minute later I exited at 14.4.

Ultimately I stomached a massive drawdown 50% but then took a 10% when it actually did get to 50%. Have to let them run, but I got in soooooo early that I couldn't help but exit break even. Also if I had waited to enter then cons went 200%.

Just have to patient.

Just needed one line. Premarket swing low was support. Then became afternoon resistance. I entered at the ribbon vs waiting for ATR level pullbacks and Swing low retest. It's really about waiting for the day levels. Takes an extreme amount of patience.

I had a thesis. I accepted the loss. I held through the miserable drawdown. Thesis played out cons went 200% from drawdown to peak exit. My best entry and best exit netted 84%.

Biggest take away is sizing smaller and scaling in over 10m candles. Stay on the 10m have a thesis, add at levels. And wait wait wait until the next level.

Challenging day but a very profitable day.