July 16

I completely accepted the loss today. I wasn't scared out of the position. I did a great job letting it play out. I had created a real thesis. I had conviction around it. And, despite getting in way too early and stomaching a painful drawdown, there was no reason to exit. Ultimately, I entered too early because fomo but if I waited longer I could've gotten in at a clear resistance level rather than a mini break of support. Puts at resistance. Where was resistance? Way higher than where I entered because I was worried I was going to miss it. That is my biggest challenge. Caving to impulsivity when fomo hits. Uncoincidentally, it's usually the worst place to enter...

So, I had the right thesis. I failed to the next step of establishing where the best place to enter is. I was very clear about where I would stop out but was unwilling to wait for price to get there or acknowledge that waiting would've enhanced the risk reward.

The setup was a continued move to the downside. We were essentially bear flagging choppily within a wide range, but the opening swing high was never at risk. The bear flag was putting in a lower low, therefor the ideal entry for continuation is not at support of the bear flag, rather the fake move up creating the swing high and rejection.

Just need to know that it does and will become obvious on the 10m. I'm not going to miss it. And, I just need to wait 5+ candles maybe 10+. There's 39 10 minute candles in a day. Waiting for 10 makes sense. We were in a tight range. Finally broke the range, and even then there was plenty of opportunity to enter.

I only trade when its obvious on the 10m. Sometimes it takes 10+ candles for it to become obvious. Sometimes if I think I've missed it, there's another, better opportunity to enter. So, I've just got to commit to waiting until I've 'missed' it on the 10m, then consider an entry. 10+ 10m candles.

Starting with the hourly. We were in a clear down from yesterday. We did double bottom with divergence over night. We did break and hold the W neckline in premarket. We tried to ivom with a close above the 48e, but structurally we didn't make a new high and we didn't break PWC. The 8a hourly put in a bearish engulfing candle. Clear resistance at the PWC. That was resistance. Then the 9a hourly candle. Tested 70% from the low to the previous hourly high. And, ultimately closed below the H21, in a down trending ribbon. That was signal to consider puts, and to then wait for price to react to resistance.

Essentially what's the hourly context. What direction is it signaling. If down, then where is resistance? Wait for the 10m to test even if we may miss. Because the truth is we can't miss. Because if we miss there's usually a second, higher probability move. Just requires patience.

On the 10m. I wanted to take puts at after the 930a candle close. Clear M with divergence. That is my setup. I didn't take it. We tanked down to PDC. At that point. Given the hourly down trend. Given the clear top. My thesis was that we would absolutely break down and make it to the put trigger. Given that thesis, I need to pause and ask myself where is resistance? Instead I chased into puts as we started to break support down. But, I know that price likes to retrace 70% before continuing further. That's ultimately what we did. We retested previous support which then became resistance. That was resistance. Therefore that's where to enter puts. I entered puts way early but confidently didn't cut because I was confident in my analysis that put trigger was incoming. I regretting sizing so heavy so quickly because there were multiple times I wanted to add size.

No after the massive move down through the put trigger I was mostly out by the previous low just below PDC. That was because of how large of a drawdown I had stomached. Fine. My final exit was 275%.

Interestingly enough, if I had missed that move... just like I 'missed' the morning move. There was yet another clear opportunity to get in.

The 11:10a deep red candle close showed a ton of momentum. The next 10m candle only retraced to previous support which was now acting as resistance. That was the quicker bigger move. So, I missed the morning trade, I could've missed the trade I took, and still had the biggest most obvious move yet. 10m had support. Lost it. Then eventually retested that support and it confirmed its turn to resistance. That is the entry. New support also broke down, eventually retested and confirmed as resistance.

support became resistance. support became resistance. resistance became support. resistance became support. resistance becomes support again?

Scalp 328 has hit. 60% that the 618 hits. That would take us to 6270ish. The 10m 8e has held 2x. 70% from the local high down to the previous resistance turned support - and 70% matching up with a fair value gap. And that 70% level holding. Is more than enough justification to play for upside. Given the end of day I may have chose too far out on the options chain. I'm sitting at 20% profit, I could take 80% off and let the rest ride for free. Or, what I'm attempting to do is take 60% at 70% gain so I have 40% of the position riding for free. Nope, on the hourly we're very much at resistance. Yes, we've become bullish, but I have to enter then at support. We are currently running into resistance. Which I have added at support, but the strike selection is just not going to pan out.

And, it worked. I waited to enter pretty damn close to support. I totally accepted the loss. And I had a real thesis and conviction. Max exit of 5x!

Previous resistance turned support. We bounced off that support and got extended from the ribbon, tapping the scalp 382. That gives a 65% to hit the 618 and 80% to hit the 500 level. Plenty of reason to enter calls. Exit at the 500 was a 5x.

Both trades I completely accepted the loss. Both trades I had a well though out thesis, meaning I had clear probability of a direction. Then it's a matter of waiting for support and resistance and only then considering to act. A clear understanding of 70% pullbacks. And clear defensible slow thesis. A clear direction. Clear patience for support or resistance. Then entry, then a wait for TP or SL. Where is support? Where is resistance? On the 10m. Then wait 10 candles. Miss the move. Miss the move. Miss the move. Because the next one is higher probability and always there.

My EOD trade was maybe my very best trade ever. It was writing out the narrative and rationale for the trade. It made it clear and created confidence. I need to write a paragraph justification for a trade which covers:

• HTF directional probability with clear identification of support and resistance levels

• 10m interaction with ATR levels, what's therefore likely?

  • Where was previous support? Previous resistance? 70% retracement?

• How would the 10m candle have to close to invalidate the direction?

• And, have to accept the loss so that I can execute the plan clear headed

New process. Paragraph / narrative / justification of a trade and stop loss and take profit before being allowed to enter.