July 15th

I am a patient and process oriented trader, that is actively trying NOT to trade.

Daily Chart

Poked above the previous 2 ATHs and rejected 40 points from there. Ribbon still bullish with the 8e still below which has previous acted as solid support.

4h Chart

A week close above the swing call trigger. Strong move down to the 4h21e which is currently acting as support, though there are 20 minutes left in the candle and now seems it make break.

Hourly Chart

SPX hourly has put it's 3rd higher high, with an even lower PO high each time. Rejected around the MD call trigger and key psych of 6300. PWC at 6260 is currently acting as support. Structure is bullish. The divergence has fully played out given the test of the 21e. SPY however is looking clearly more vommy. We lost the 21e and closed below the 48e. Retested the 21e and have since rejected it. We're currently tested the 48e support again. Squeeze is starting to fire to the downside.

10m Plan

SPY. Bias is clearly down. Puts in the ribbon only. Or if extended from the ribbon, put trigger holds and there's divergence, then can consider calls for a scalp. Higher probability play is puts in the ribbon, especially if the hourly closes below the 48e.

Be cognizant of a double bottom, but the higher probability is puts in the ribbon for continuation.

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Of course. Puts at the ribbon for continuation. I "missed" it. Then waited for the bear flag. But, I got in a tad early and was confident enough to hold through the wiggles. I had a shitty entry. I exited the second half with a 10% loss when the ultimately loss was only 12%, then ripping to a 30% gain.

My error was being so focused on losing the trade vs. following the price action. 10m setup. 3m entry. Got to wait and let it play out.

Making matters worse I switched to calls, but the issue wasn't that I wasn't "right" on the direction it was just a poor entry and low confidence.

The first trade was a totally acceptable loss. It's the revenge trade that led to a large loss and another loss.

My second trade I was ultimately right, but I oversized and didn't wait to enter at support. I chased in fear of missing the trade. No such thing. 10m chart with patience. No fomo.

If I entered were I exited I'd now be at 100%. Come on.

Patience on the 10m. That's all it takes. Setup is there now but I'm out of capital and confidence.

1st trade was justified and ultimately right I just had low confidence.

2nd trade was also very justified and correct but by chasing in with size I couldn't handle the wiggle. Cons went 83% from my entry, 125% from my exit, and so far it's looking like more upside.

Yep. 100% from og entry. 200% from stop out.

In hindsight. Ribbon down. PDC broke, ribbon held as resistance. High probability of put trigger hitting. Wait for that!

Setup requires ATR levels.