July 11

Sigh. What did I do yesterday? Or more importantly, how can I mitigate yesterday from happening again; but for real this time.

It comes down to discipline. Intention. Focus. What am I trying to accomplish? What is the most consistent way to do that?

First the positives. I am genuinely getting better and more honed into what I'm looking for on lower time frames to justify entry. Mini divergences provide great risk reward. But, I have to be patient enough on higher time frames and truly understanding the HTF context to warrant zooming in.

Yesterday I didn't come in with intention. The intention not to trade. The intention to wait for obvious. I simply saw what I wanted to see and acted. And, because I didn't follow my process, I was embarrassed, ashamed, unwilling to take the loss. Which led to a much bigger loss.

If at the start of the day I knew I was going to lose that much or be 'willing' to lose that much I could just set a limit and walked away. I have to accept the loss completely. I have to focus on my process completely. I have to do it every time. Wait for obvious on the 10m. Only then zoom in lower. And, the premiums should be showing divergence and squeeze as well. I can do this. I have done this. Can I do it every time? Well, I have to.

HTF Analysis

Daily... Bullish. Made new ATH yesterday. Tapped Swing call trigger and rejected there. 4h also bullish and is currently testing the 21e fulfilling the mean reversion. On SPX the swing call trigger also acted as resistance and mean reversion has not happened yet, tho has been signaled. Mean reversion on the 4h would take us to PMC / 6205ish. Previous ATH was 6285, another level to keep tabs on.

Hourly chart... structure is starting to shift to the downside. Ranging between PWC and MD Put trigger. The ribbon is very much acting as resistance right now. Downward bias on the hourly, though can't expect too much continuation with the higher time frames still bullish. SPX also bullish, but a clear divergence has formed at the ATH. We made new ATH with far lower PO. This signals a move to the 21e, but it looks like we're going to open well below that at the Hourly 48. No need to chase into puts as that may act as support. MD put trigger right at 6235ish.

10m chart. Hourly ribbon clear resistance. The 830 low matched the 6a and 7a low with higher PO. So 10m divergence signaled a move up to hourly 8e / 10m48e. We could certainly see another retest of support with divergence and signal another move back up to the ribbon. It also potentially looks like an IHS. But we'll be patient.

10m is clearly down. Hourly is tilting down. HTFs still bullish. Puts in the ribbon and at resistance. Calls only at support and extended from the ribbon.

And, we did it. We waited for obvious. We waited in the face of having price rip without me despite being the plan. I continued to wait til obvious.

The 10m chart is the reason. Waiting for obvious on the 10m chart. Having conviction because of it and being calm while in the trade.

The morning. It looked choppy on SPY. And, it looked crazy extended on SPX. Spy showed an ivom but I was worried about the Hourly 21 and SPX rejecting given the momo.

It became incredibly frustrating given price kept ripping and I had several planned trades for if certain levels hold and or break to get long.

However rather than chasing, I decided to simply wait for a proper setup. And we got one. Price ripped all the way to an overnight level and put trigger. 20 minutes of inability to breakout and a matching bodies to signal a clear resistance.

The 3m also put in a higher high with lower low signaling divergence. But, the real reason to hold was on SPX. We tried to penetrate the ribbon but we were unable to. Price may continue up but price doesn't do that without putting in a higher low, and we were very far from the morning low. Expectation of continuation was sound.

As always I exited too early, but that's okay. The case for holding was based on the 10m structure. And, the case for holding while in the trade, price was steadily making lower highs. All the 1m rips were simply pullbacks to the 1m21e and no higher move was made.

Interestingly enough we only got the true 1m rip reversal after we spent 20minutes unable to breakdown the 10m 21e. I could've easily taken that trade as well with my 1m divergence entry. But, I'm already done for the day.

This is how I want to trade. Resist fomo. Wait til obvious on the 10m where I can slowly articulate and justify what setup is there. Only then zooming in to improve entry. Additionally, waiting on the premium to show divergence as well. I can trade. It just requires effort and intention and patience.

I must put forth the intention, the effort, and the patience each and every day to do this consistently. I can't have mindless days like yesterday that undo months of progress.