July 1 Recap

Sigh. Went from +2.6% on the port. To -16.5%. Unacceptable.

My first trade was solid.

An inability to break 6200 SPX. But a bullish ribbon, bullish hourly, Put trigger holding as support. And, most importantly, off the 6200 reject the 10m21e continued to act as support.

I took a 'scary' risky entry at the 10m21e and was able to take meaningful profit just back to 6200. I reentered and again exited most at 6200, and ultimately closed my runner back around the SPX level I entered. That was again the ideal entry with an eventual move up to 6210.

The second trade....

First off, there was no reason to trade except EOD with profit.. I made 2%+. No reason to put more capital at risk, especially since it wasn't an amazing setup. It was good, I just clearly didn't fully think through the scenarios. Ultimately my mistake was ignoring the 10m divergence forming and the clear inside day we were putting in. I was playing for a breakout of HOD but that's silly. In reality that means I'm far closer to resistance than support.

I got sucked in to predicting that the trap moves happened and it was now time to rip. That's prediction, no reaction. If I were reacting, I'd know that yes while we looked bullish, the ideal entry is always in the ribbon. Not the worst justification to get in. On the 10m we created a NHOD. We pulled back to the ribbon and created a 3 bar reversal off the 10m13e. That was solid justification to enter. What was NOT solid was the oversizing into 1dtes. That was the mistake. That was it. A 30% loss on a properly sized position is okay. Not ideal, but not the end of the world. Relative to my plan there was no reason to get out, but the size forced my hand. Of course that was the ideal entry. A bounce of the put trigger and my contracts fully recovered.. and even went in profit.

Biggest mistake.

1. position size

2. not being supremely confident of what it would take to signal downside

   1. waiting for that to be tested, even if it meant missing the move, before acting

Not a great start at all to July, Q3, etc. But, it's early. I will improve. I had +2%. Making money is easy. Keeping money is hard. There was no reason for me to enter another trade and turn my green day into red, let alone unacceptable red.

That was my worst single day from a percentage and dollar standpoint since I've been writing here. I can only believe that the confidence of June allowed me to take this unnecessary risk. And, the fact that I didn't reset the portfolio. Ugh. I've dug a hole. But by focusing on process and patience I know the system works. I just have to let it. Get out of the way.

Brutal day.