July 1. Leroy Jenkins.

I had a great June. Now starts July. My goal is high quality, highly defensible trades only. The outcome will be what it is, but I will be proud of each entry. I will be stupid patient on the 10m to identify a setup. And only then zoom in once price is at S/R. And, even then I will wait for a reversal pattern with divergence, that is near a swing pivot! And, after all that waiting, I will only scale in. As it becomes more obvious I may add. I'm not going to miss anything.

It's been 2+ weeks since trading. So, I will be extra patient today. Perhaps even intentionally 'missing' the first trade. There's no rush. I've got all the time.

Analysis

Monthly Chart

I rarely go this high from an analysis perspective as it's not worth it given my preferred trading time frame. But, still nice to have some context. How April closed was the clearest indication that we would just continue to rip higher. A crazy long wick, trapping all the sellers, closing with a dragonfly doji that held the monthly 21 and the previous months low. As May continued higher, that was confirmation for further upside. So even a 'late' add at the beginning of June was justified. And rightfully so, we broke ATHs in June. +1ATR for the year would take us to 6500. The path with which we could get there however could be all over the place.

Weekly

The weekly is equally bullish with a strong bull gap at 5750ish. That's about an 8% drop from here. The gap could very much get filled before we continue higher. So, if and when that crazy scary dip happens, I hope that I will remember that we may just be filling the gap and that area could be a very amazing chance to get long.

Trade plan for the weekly. Wait for the ribbon to consider longs.

In terms of what's 'likely' this week... It's a short week. Market closes Thursday at 1p. Probably super low volume all week. Additionally, we're far from the ribbon. While we absolutely could continue up, it'll be interesting to see how this week ends. If we put in a doji, we could see a return to the ribbon next week. Putting in an evening star reversal. But, the reversal could be just to lure shorts at the ribbon only to continue higher. Time and patience will tell.

The Daily

Also, clearly bullish. Bullish gap below at 6050 which aligns currently with the D21 and the Quarterly Put trigger. If I was trading the daily I'd want to see price react in the ribbon before considering swinging long. Like the weekly we could totally continue higher, but the RR is low given were far from the ribbon. Price momentum seems to be slowing, which you can gauge by the smaller / tighter range candles. If we were to curl / pause here, we would create a divergence. HH in price with EH in PO, suggesting a mean reversion only.

Hourly

Choppy sideways action. Bias is still bullish as support continues to hold. Dips to 6160 continue to get bought. Previous week high is acting as support. No real reason to consider bearishness until that breaks. I would be unsurprised to see a new high be made today. Especially with the slightly rising 48 continuing to hold.

We're compressed into a small range. Pretty trappy. Key Psych of 6200 continues to act as real resistance. My feeling is that if it breaks, we rip to 6115ish. What is happening right now is I'm semi over trading and going to mentally tap it before we finally get the rip.

10m Plan

Bullish but choppy. Ribbon entries only as always! Previous day close is acting as support. But, we've also created some divergence on the last swing high. Which is still just indication of a mean reversion. It's important to wait patiently around PDC and ensure it holds.

I've already taken 1 trade now it's really time to wait for the most ideal trade and / or just wait until EOD.