December 8 - FOMC Week

Fed decision could take us out of the tight range we've been in for the last week or so.

Daily

Bullish. On Friday we broke above the swing high / supply zone created November 12. It also marked 3 days of higher closes. With the Daily 8e acting as a launching pad. ATH however are still above about .5% away. PO hasn't quite made it into the distribution zone- which has typically been right where price begins to fade. We are closer to resistance than we are to the D21. In the ribbon or nearer to previous swing lows are the ideal place to enter swing longs. The 21e on all time frames - when close to a previous swing high or swing low - is where I enter trades, period.

4hour The 21 is acting as support. With a slow, grindy, move up. PO concurs given how long it has been squeezing. No real momentum on the 4h. 8e is holding as support on a closing basis, but dips to the 21e are the real entry point. Large dips should be bought- until 6800 is lost.

Hourly

Also bullish. We are very clearly making HLs and HHs. With VIX high the range between pivots is large and tradeable. But without zooming out it's easy to think reversal or continuation when it's likely just a HTF retracement. We are currently in the middle of the previous swing high and swing low- with a very clearly bullish bias. To initiate longs I'd prefer a move down to 6850ish and a hold. For now the H21 is holding, so if there's a setup on the 10m then we can enter a day trade long. A 10m setup would like something like what happened this morning. Several moves to a demand zone trapping late shorts. And, only taking calls after 1. a LL is made with Higher PO. and 2. 3+ 3m candle holds of the 21 and 3. a TL break -- with a target of 10 points.

So the 5a made a LL with higher PO and closed in the ribbon. The 3m21e claimed for 3+ candles, but didn't lead to the 10 points reversal. What's different about the third LL around 7a that ultimately led to the 10 point rip? The 5a low was just after the 10m conviction arrow fired down - which typically signals a deep pullback to the ribbon and continuation. The 7a low was actually lower on a body close basis. And, the 3m created a deep flush and wick.

It was the deep, deep wick and engulfing nature of the 3m candle that ultimately signaled the larger move up. Using the 3m21e as a technical stop we ultimately got our 10 points move - which took an hour with lots of volatility BUT never a close below the 3m8e. There's really no need to consider exiting before the 10 points unless the 3m 8e breaks down.

10m

Thin ribbon and currently in between PDC and call trigger - actually tighter - ON high and premarket low. We are definitely bullish on all time frames so that's the bias. Ideal dip would be down close to premarket low and then a move up. If that doesn't occur and I 'miss' it, I can wait for a breakout above ON hi for continuation up to the call trigger and then PDH.

Patience. It became super obvious at 7a for my 10 point move. I can wait again until it's super obvious.

Okay. In prematurely. Why? It's not that I thought I was going to miss it. It was that I felt confident it was going to happen, so might as well get in early. And, that's the trap. Instead of getting early or at all. I could've would've seen the 3m21e rejecting and the 10m rejecting the put trigger as well. Now I'm unwilling to change my thesis because I'm fully committed to this trade. If I sized small I could've simply cut and flipped. But we are very clearly headed down. It's just a matter of if we get a pullback into the 10m ribbon or not. Of course now that I've been in the trade for so long already I'm less likely to hold if it does go in my favor.

But the setup is that if the 3m21e reclaims and flips that then I should hold for 10ish points. But currently can't even recapture the 3m8e. Which as I've realized. Use the 3m21e as the entry and stay in the trade until the 3m8e is lost. We can't reclaim it... not a great sign. At this point I think we'll pierce LOD maybe wick and then deep pullback - but now that we're penetrating the LOD the pullback may not even get me back to breakeven. The easy trade was to wait for the 3+ candles around the 3m21e and not worry about missing anything.

There goes LOD. I want to exit. Will we wick or not? Sadly, as I've said. Even if we do. Will a pullback get me remotely close to break even...? I don't know. On an hourly basis we're just tanking. We lost the 48e with a squeeze it fired and we're heading down.

The 45 delta puts... went 100% on that move. I'm sitting at -50%

If we recapture the 3m21e and flip I will not exit until take profit level or a close below the 3m8e

If the 3m21e doesn't reclaim or flip well then I need to exit.

Every time we get to a new low I wait to not bail at the ideal entry. Then we get back to the ribbon and I don't limit the loss because I think this is the time we're going to reverse.

So much easier to go with the 3m21e - Just go with the 3m21e until it flips. Wait 3 candles.

Simple. 3m21e. 3+ candles. Then and only then may I consider acting.

We have ATR GG open down to 6820 and here I am sitting in calls waiting for a move up to 6855ish...

Meanwhile we're very squarely down.

My setup is to wait for the 3m21e flip. If it doesn't flip it's more likely to continue. So wait until the 3m21e. I know whats happening it's just a matter of being able to wait.

Stop thinking you know what's going to happen. Simply execute around the 3m21e bias. That is it.

We're going down. But I don't know where to cut.

It's when we get close the 3m21e that I begin to doubt myself on continuation and consider reversal flip instead.. Just wait for 3 candles at the 21e and potentially miss it.

Just ignore price until we hit the 3m21e then evaluate the structure and the higher time frame. First hit of the 3m21e allows me to pay attention and analyze. Before that it just doesn't matter. So even now as I'm waiting to cut. Let's wait until price gets to the 3m21e. If we break it and hold for 3 candles stay in. If we tap it and reject. Exit.

Meanwhile if I took puts at the 3m21e... I'd hold til 10 points or a 3m8e reclaim. We got the 10 points before the reclaim.

It's constantly about resisting the tempation to think I know where price is going and acting on that. Instead just waiting long enough for price to react to the 3m21e and then deciding on direction - if any - based on HTF.

Like right now I want to add calls. But I will wait. Wait until it flips! Because if it doesn't, then I don't have the edge.

My ability to wait while in a losing trade is amazing. My ability to wait to enter a trade or hold a winning trade is non-existant.

So I was very reluctant to exit because I wanted to BE. Got to break even but then couldn't get back. My patience for capturing every point long then signaled a very obvious move back down. The 3m21e was green. We couldn't create a new high. We lost the 3m21e and dropped 12 points in 9 minutes.

On the call side once we claimed the 3m21e we ran 12 points. Once it was officially lost we lost 12 points. If I just wait until the 3m21e is touched and evaluate the higher time frame context. I can size and count on major moves. Rather than thinking of it has number of points - given that's high predicated on VIX - it's more important to look at levels. On the call side we ripped to the put trigger. On the put side we tanked to just above LOD. If I just wait, then I can size, then I can hold til the next level and bank.

I have a checklist for process. But what I may need is a checklist for actual setup.

The fisrt encounter with the 3m21e we rejected it and the 10m8e. We chopped there but ultimately didn't break the 21e or flip. 3 candles unable to break the 21e. That high is the SL. That's it. Simple. By getting in early expecting a reversal I was unable to exit and see the downside.

Second encounter with the 21e. Same exact look. 3 candles unable to break the 21e. But the 4th did. And flipped the 21e and the previous 3 candles of resistance held as support. That was the rip up to the 10m21e.

Then that candle into the 10m21e, super high volume creating a tweezer top. We chopped and finally broke down the 21e and 48e with momo. Puts to LOD which I took but exited early.

Late encounters with the 3m21e. We flipped but the previous few candles resistance held as resistance. Ribbon skinny. 10m21e close above. Choppy. Bias has to be down unless flip and resistance turned support.

3m21e defer to 10m. Only reverse if 21e is broken and resistance turned support.

Wait for 3m21e

Reverse if

1. 10m divergence

2. 3m divergence

3. Close above 21e

4. resistance created before the break/hold of the 21e now acting as support

   1. THAT becomes STOP LEVEL and ideally entry.

5. exit at 3m48e (meaning 48e should be far away) then 10m21e

   1. Or better yet the previous supply zone

Continuation if

1. 3-4 candles reject 21e

2. HTF context - 10m and hourly

3. Or after we breach 21e and get into ribbon - once lose the 3m21e again then can enter for a retest of low IF it rejects and we've lost a recent support level based on many candle bodies