December 5th

Building Confidence.

I saw the 3m21e flip. I waited 3 candles. I identified the PO divergence on the 10m. We were extended from the ribbon on the hourly.

Ultimately I wish I had 1. realized the 70% retracement from PM low to market high.

So here's the initial look from the 10m time frame

Significantly higher high from the overnight high and extreme PO reading fade. We tanked into the ribbon, which was scary at first because the 10m21e held. However, zooming in to the 3m, the pivot flip and held as resistance.

nice round top on the 3m with several PO dots and lowering PO despite equalish highs. We lost the 21e. In real time I was annoyed 'i missed the down' but I was able to remind myself that there's no such thing as missing and that if anything if we keep tanking quick there'd be an opportunity to play the bounce especially given the 10m21e was right there.

My mis step / hesitation. I was waiting for 3 closes below the flipped ribbon. We got that but then I still didn't enter. The cons I was focused on were oscillating between $15 and $10 with clear support around $10 and a flipping 3m ribbon as well. Not only did the 3m21e flip and hold but price couldn't break above the 48e.

When we started to finally dip below the call trigger but didn't flush I got bullish thinking the 10m21e was going to hold. This was primarily because of my focus on the 1m chart. Finding divergences vs waiting for the very obvious divergence to present itself. I was able to take a small profit on those while entering puts because ultimately the mini move up was just a retest of the 3m21e. Cons dipped to about 11.5 there and I entered at 13. I of course exited early for no reason other than wanting to take profit. The ideal take profit was PDH and the 10m200e. That's where I exited 1 con for $20 with it peaking at $21.5. If I held the whole position to target that'd have been a massive gain.

However

1. I saw the setup and eventually took it

2. I profited

What I had wish I'd done while in the trade was confidence in the setup. The 3m21e flipped red. Both the 3m21e and 48e held as resistance. And, the "rip" up didn't breach the previous swing high. So while in the trade it's still important to identify pivots. Knowing that if I hadn't entered, where I'd ideally enter is the Swing High.

So if I'm already in puts, instead of thinking oh crap I'm wrong, I need to think where would I add puts, if I wasn't in already? Puts at Swing High.

Waiting 3 candles below the flip. Yes it started dipping without me. But NBD, I get P@SH and near the 3m21e. The ema's are directional. Price establishes true highs and lows. It just so happens the 3m21e eventually lined up with the previous body highs.

Interestingly enough there was yet another opportunity to get in P@SH. And it also happen to be exactly where I stopped out of my last runner.

We pushed above the 21e and call trigger, but were unable to actually push above the previous swing high. We also put in a bearish engulfing at that point. We had 2+ holds of the 21e once it was reclaimed as resistance. My cons dipped to a low of $10 (my original range where I wanted to enter). And ripped to $24. Well above my best exit.

Also. Now we actually have the true divergence that may flip the 21e back to positive.

OOOORRR is this another move to the previous swing high for yet another entry for puts. We have 3 candle closes above the 21e and the flip occuring on the 3rd. That's the signal to hold off on puts for now and then consider calls instead if we get 3 hold of the 21e now that its flipped. Lets see. Yet again it's not cut and dry because the call trigger is currently acting as resistance and the previous swing high on the 3m is as well.

We have a 3m arrow firing. I think calls are in order. But I enter calls at swing lows and either side as close as possible to the 3m21e.

So I will wait and potentially miss.

The play is probably to just enter 1 right away then add size at the 3m21e if we see it.

The take profit level is the 382. Though part of me thinks we could run all the way to the 618. But, I will wait. I'm going to enter 1 con here. Cut if we lose the 3m21e. Really stupid entry though because we are basically at a swing high. Exit if 3m21e is lost on a closing basis. Add if 3m21e is tested and holds. Then we exit at the 382 level unless the 3m21e breaks. Okay yes too soon because at a high. But also unscared by the dip to the 3m21e. Dipped exactly there and have bounced hard. It also lined up with a swing low from earlier. Should I had added there? Idk. I could and just use the 21e as risk. But against it because we're rounding out a swing high rather than a swing low. There we go the massive tank. 10m bearish engulfing, red 21e and loss of the 3m48e. More downside? Or if the 3m21e recaptures then I can add. EMAs are directional.

Scary dip and potentially reclaim of the 21e? Yep. If I had taken my loss right at the close below the 21e I'd be out and missing this rip. Though this could just be a pullback before continuing down. Looks like we're creating a 3m swing low. And reclaiming the 21e. Time to add?

Now that I have additional cons is the 1st exit the previous swing high or do I hold all until the original target of the 382 level.

Exiting at the previous swing high basically puts me at break even on the first con. So my new trade would be significantly lower from a cost basis standpoint. But, I want to hold to my original target because the fake out was real. And, I would've stopped out. Instead I waited and added.

We're no struggling to break over the previous swing highs that were good put entries the first time around.

But my target is the 382 day level on spy. And similarly the scalp call trigger on SPX.

On the flip side I have more than enough profit on a percentage basis... On the flip side of that it's usually the last rip that sends the contracts exponential. I will wait. We're about 30 minutes removed from the last swing high though..

I could've exited at 45% now I'm back down to 10%ish Which is where I entered my first con.

What's frustrating now is I'm thinking I'll exit if /when it gets back to the high it just hit. But, then why didn't I take that in the first place. If we are in fact creating a swing high, then it'd be with much lower PO.. SPY scalp call holding as resistance.. And, now we're back at the 3m21e.. If it holds now I guess I wait for the OG target. But I don't think it's going to hold because we just rejected the swing high again. And this time with lower PO. If it does hold I may add yet another contract. Which begs the question why not enter here since I'd be very very close to where I'd want to stop out anyway. Thereby lowering the loss.

Right now I am convinced we're going to tank. But as of now the 3m21e is holding. But so is the 3m8e as resistance.. I need to be content with 10 points. Which I gained. Anything more is not needed. Consistently grab 10 points and do that over and over. I keep crushing confidence because I'm pushing for more. This is the 2nd time the 1m21e has flipped red.. does that mean anything? No. The 3m21e is still holding. But thats now 3 candles of the 3m8e acting as resistance. Vommy coming? Or 1m w with div?

I'm in calls so I should be thinking about the previous swing lows. Where are they? Are we creating higher lows?

We're very clearly making a 10m lower high. I made the 10 points already. I didn't need to hold for more or add. We're chopping and there's no direction on any time frame. We're in no mans land. Here comes the tank. I made it 10 points. Come on. Now I'm just waiting to get back to the previous high but with theta cons won't be worth as much even IF we do get there. Which we're not. Because the tank is on. Or because there's no trend we were just going to revisit the swing low. If I'm taking calls where's the previous swing low? Because honestly my SL should be below that incase there's divergence...

Damn. Pivot flipping and coming off divergence. But at support. Previous swing low holding... for now. Could it be as simple as waiting for the pivot to flip then getting in at Swing Low or Swing High? Probably not. Or maybe yes. Pivot is flipping red? If break above thats the proper time to add. Otherwise cut. We're also just not moving in any direction. Fuck EMA's. It's short hand. I need to focus on swing pivots. There we go. Tank is on. Just as I started thinking my calls were safe. Yet realizing we simply moved back up to the most recent swing high. That's when we tank.

I felt the need to add to my calls as a way to cope with not exiting when I had my 10 points and 50% return. Greed. I wanted more. Didn't exit. Then added more to make up for what I left on the table. Swing low still holding. Ema's are silly. They smooth out the swings pivots. Pivots are far more important. When ribbons are thing, pivots are all that matter. Been in a 20 point range since 11a. I had 10!

Okay so 3m flip. If steep then 3m21e can serve as an entry, but it likely coincides with a previous SH or SL. If shallow then absolutely have to wait for SH and SL. Hmmm basically need to wait for SH or SL regardless. Extra bonus if it coincides with the 3m21e.

So, while I'm considering a trade or especially while in a trade. Where would I ideally add more? Since C@SL P@SH then need to keep tabs on that on the 3m knowing that come every 10ish candles.

Even now I'm getting excited that we're going to continue up, but we're not close to the previous swing high so that's why. We're moving back up to there. Yep look at that. I was excited we were moving up. But rationally we were just headed toward the swing high. Naturally ebbs and flows. Long is still the play but that means waiting waiting waiting for reaction to swing low.

An hour ago I could've exited for +40% and despite averaging down I'm now down 50%. Big moving reversals come from extreme readings on PO. Just have to wait for those. Can enter early, then add at SHs or SLs.

3m extreme PO. Then reaction to SH or SLs. Add. Hold.

Okay. 3m21e flip, if red where's last swing high? if green where's last swing low? wait, wait, wait. take 10 points. Only if the flip was off a divergence. meaning pivots 30+ mins apart with meaningfully HH or LL, extreme PO, and a closer to zero reading despite the greater extreme in price.

If 21e pivots without divergence, no reversal. Wait for 21e to reclaim and go with continuation.

For it to be back ti a swing high or swing low for a late entry I have to feel like I'm wrong and that's it's going to rip against me. The best indicator for we've finally gone far enough for reversal.

If we've flipped and then way too far from the previous low or high can expect a quicker move back to the previous pivot.