December 10 JPOW

All I was supposed to do was be patient enough to wait for price to come to the 3m21e then decide what to do.

Of course the trades I took were all far away from the 3m21e.

1 great controlled trade

1 trade way too early and way too otm

1 trade pretty sound and never in the red though still reluctant to hold.

1:57 candle closes and it becomes clear to me we're going to rip. 3rd attempt at breaking support with higher PO. 2:00 candle rips face then tanks, but holds the 3m21e.

That was the entry for calls.

I hesitated and instead waited to see if price would break the high of the 2:00 candle rip. While we did the bodies were unable to break it. The 382 presented as resistance which I flagged. I entered 1 contract. Then as we retested the 382 and rejected I added a few cons for a move down to the 3m21e. I did a great job focusing on the PA alone. As long as the previous candle high remained intact there was no reason to exit. This allowed me to hold for a meaningful gain.

Then the next to visits of the 3m21e, I hesitated on calls. The drops to the ribbon were so violent it was hard to stay focused on the positive sloped 3m21e.

Scary tank into the 3m21 with a candle closing right at the 3m21e. Next candle dips even further below but then recaptures the 3m21e creating a tweezer bottom / clear support. Hammer candle body open was the appropriate SL to enter calls.

Then the second time.. This time we broke the 3m21e, but again the next candle dipped harder and created a HL. Yet again a tweezer bottom - clear support - and a bit higher than the previous low. Enter calls there..

With the volatility I got away from my simplicity. 3m21e green, where is previous low? where is previously flag break retest? What would support look like?

In both cases the next candle reclaimed the 8e, which was also an acceptable entry. For a slight move higher.

Really just focus on 3m21e only. Be patient enough to wait or miss until price gets to 3m21e. And, if I miss it, just miss it, and wait for the next opportunity at the 3m21e.

Either I'm at the 3m21e and waiting 3 candles inside the ribbon.

Or if I'm significantly distant from the 3m21e and the 1m is in the extreme zone I can wait for a reversion back to the 3m21e. Must be far from 3m21e and at the extreme zone.

High was created on the 1m. PO increased but with less room to go higher. Then we tried to break that high again but we weren't able to and PO was lower. This was the justification for my put entry to scalp back to the 3m21e.

The second time we were again unable to break the initial 1m high in the distribution zone. However, it wasn't clear to me we were topping or stalling. Then the candle tanked so hard I had 'missed' the trade. NBD.

Where I erred big time. I decided to rely on the 618 ATR level solely. The 1m chart was showing resistance but I was predicting a turnaround as opposed to waiting for a clear setup to justify it. Worse.. I averaged down bigly. If instead of adding more size and instead sold then I'd have lost significantly less money.

On the plus side I did thankfully and eventually exit given I was so far OTM. It was becoming clear to me that even if we headed in the right direction there's no way I'd get to break even. I took the loss and then was incredible clear headed ENTERING the last trade.

Staying in... still difficult.

But basically we created a very slightly higher resistance level with lower PO levels. This time it was the 782 level that was lost. Every attempt to break higher was rejected.

Where I actually did well with this trade. I got in where I knew I'd have to cut my loss. I was willing to go big because I was certain I had waited long enough that this was a double top and were starting to descend. And, if and only if we made a new high did I need to exit. What also helped was being in the other puts and realizing I'd likely exit too soon from an underlying PA level - but given the contract was OTM it was just fine.

It seems I prefer ITM contracts and taking entries far closer to my stop loss. That way I know I'm limiting my loss and also much easier to hold through the wiggles since the premium low likely wont be penetrated unless I need to stop out.

I was in a trade prior and exited early. Became clear. So clear that I was able to wait for the extra ideal entry aka near my stop loss. Even the sharp move against me I was able to resort to my originally planned stop loss because it wouldn't be significantly more of a loss than I had planned to take from the outset.

Okay we're getting so close to what I'm good at.

Waiting and deferring to the 3m21e

If green and strong 10m trend, where is previous swing low? Have two candles created a tweezer bottom? It's support, use it as SL. Especially given 10m trend intact or expanding.

If 3m21e green but overall trend is sideways or down, wait for multiple attempts to create a swing high, then enter puts after it's flipped.

If red and in trend, wait for multiple candles to reject the 3m21e - if miss it get in when price interacts with the 3m21e again AND is at the previous bear flag support.

If there have been multiple attempts to break a new low and then the 3m21e flips green, can enter calls.

If far from the hourly and 10m ribbon, we've begun to stall / lose momentum, and new highs are made with lower PO, then can scalp back down to the ribbon. And given it's counter trend have to wait extremely long for clear rounding tops or bottoms on the 3m separated by 20+ minutes.

10 candles between swings, 3 candles at the 21 to confirm action or miss and wait until next look.

Waiting for the 3m21e and perfecting that in different scenarios (H green / red / sideways and 10m green / red / sideways). I can get good.

Run the probabilities. Where is price relative to hourly and 10m ribbon - how did price react at the 3m21e - what is the more likely outcome. ATR levels help the probabilities more.