August 7th

Scale. AF type thesis. Let it play out. Be extra patient. Super obvious.

Daily

21e support. We've moved back up to 78.6% of the previous swing high. Interesting level here to keep note of.

4h

If we can't break the previous candle high, it's likely that RAF will fire down. This doesn't mean get short immediately, but it does mean caution in getting long.

Hourly Very clear and strong trend to the upside. Dips to the ribbon are buyable. Though we have created some divergence... On the flip side we've tapped the 786 which signals a move up to +1 by tomorrow. Currently the ribbon is holding in premarket and immediate dips should and can get bought up.

Only other thing to consider is it's Thursday. We're gapping open above yesterdays high. Thursday gap fill percentages are the highest of any day.

Just need to wait for an obvious setup, then obvious resistance entry, and then wait wait wait for the fill.

10m

Very bullish as well. We're flagging, with the 618 and 34e acting as very clear support. More support just below the 618 at the 500 level.

If we lose the 500 level and the 48e, that's strong indication to get short. If we continue to hold the 618 that's longable.

We're in a box so best to just wait for support to get long or a high volume breakout in momentum. Premarket we came just short of tapping +1 for the day. Probabilities suggest it will be hit. Probabilities also suggest gap fill.

Has to be super obvious. Zoomed out thesis. Scale in slowly.

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I couldn't have scripted a better morning.

Trade 1

I said "immediate dips should and can get bought up" given the consistent support by bulls at the 500 level since 730a. RIght off the open we got our 'scary' dip which I scaled into. I didn't even have to size more because we ripped so quickly that even my first sells were 50%+

Scalp levels gave me extra confidence to get long and gave me an appropriate exit point. Given how hard we gapped up the likelihood of a move higher without a significant pullback was low.

Trade 2...

There was no reason to continue to trade given I'd returned enough in the first 10 minutes. However, the setup was clear...

I said "Thursday gap fill percentages are the highest of any day"

We were struggling to breakout above the where I exited my calls. A second attempt to break that level failed and I got short in small size.

I was playing for the gap fill down to yesterdays high so wasn't eager to exit. I got chopped up and took some profit, added, and ultimately took a small loss overall.

Trade 3

Turns out I was just early. But, I'm very proud of the fact that I sized small and took my loss. I can always get back in. And, that's what I did! This time we got the move I was counting on.

We retraced to resistance and my original put entry. This time with divergence. And a very clear three candle evening star reversal. This gave me the confidence to load up.

Of course when I load up, I exit quick. Of course my thesis played out. We filled the gap! The gap fill exit was 90% on my ATM cons. While I used to think about what could've been if I held the entire way down. It just doesn't matter. I stomached very little drawdowns and loaded with conviction.

In terms of improvement. Something to consider...

My thesis was for a gap fill. On SPX a gap fill gets us down to 6350. If instead of entering the 6375s which were 5-10 points OTM when I entered, I entered the 6350s....

The 6350 puts traded around $3 to $4 at the time of my sized put entry. At the gap fill those hit $13! +$1,000 / contract. What's tricky with 0dte is that it's really hard to hold until the target because the closer ITM we get the larger the swings are from a cost basis standpoint. For example when price stalled at the H21 before continuing down further, the 6350s range was 4.5 to 9. That's $450/con of leakage if I'm wrong on the final target.

I'm still improving my process, strike selection and execution rules. But, it's far easier to do so in a position of profit and consistency. So, that's what I'll continue to focus on. My approach can evolve over time, but only if I give myself the time.

Amazing, amazing day.