August 26

Am I trying to get better or am I actually trying to get better?

Daily + Quarterly ATR

On SPY the Quarterly 500 tapped signaling a greater likely hood to reach the 618 by 9.30. I still wouldn't get long on the daily timeframe as I'd like to see a deeper test of the ribbon. SPX the 500 has NOT hit, but the ribbon is very bullish and a hold of the 382 and 21e would signal more upside.

4h + Monthly ATR

Continuing to chop and flag from Friday's rip. The monthly call trigger and 48e continue to provide bounces and the 21 has been holding on close. Unless a clear reversal pattern emerges dips to the ribbon are to be bought. On SPX it's even clearer with the call trigger and 13e acting as the last line of bullish defense. I still am cautious on initiating any swings as a deeper retracement down to Friday's low is warranted from a market structure perspective.

Hourly + Weekly ATR

Since open the H21 has continued to hold. The ribbon is thin so dips may be deeper but all dips are getting bought. We created an equal low overnight at the weekly put trigger, with divergence. There is no reason yet to consider downside. However! We are currently at yesterdays resistance level, which was also previously overnight support from the weekly open. On SPX the hourly continues to flag in a nice channel. 48e was tested and held. Previous month high tested and held. 8e is serving as resistance currently AND we're at channel resistance. If we break last nights resistance, more upside is likely. If resistance continues to hold an M with divergence on LTFs could provide a put entry. The bias continues to be up though!

6450 SPX is a crucial level

Last 6 10m + Daily ATR

Squeezing. Small range. We're stuck in the trigger box. PDC is very clearly support and the call trigger very clearly resistance. Bias is up. Calls in the ribbon with PDC as stop or Puts at Call trigger after a clear setup. 120 and 130 candles formed a tweezer top with divergence signaling a mean reversion. Which we got and then some. We had a 'scary' drop at 1:50 likely enticing late shorts with the previous candle low eventually holding, along with the 21e. The next candle engulfed and broke the 8e, signaling more upside ahead. That was the ideal place to get long for a move up to the call trigger. But, we've continued higher and it's not a great risk reward to enter now. We are at resistance.

IF the previous candle low holds, that could signal a reason to get in given the ribbon is bullish and the trap was seemingly set.

10m Plan

Previous resistance turned support and regained as support is the key pivot for a move up to the call trigger or down to the put trigger.

What is my justification for entering? What is the setup? Where is CASPAR? Where are we headed if so. Size small. Wait wait wait.

I'm wanting to enter because fomo. I do think we're headed higher. But this is not the right risk reward entry. The 10m could be forming a hanging man. I will wait for a test of previous support. Though we've heald this level now for 10m... And there we go. Rip face. I won't chase. But I will be on the look out for a fast rejection. Calls went 2.5 to 4.5 on that move. Or maybe it just wasn't obvious. It's okay. I didn't miss anything. These calls never broke below 3 before ripping to 10.

And, there we go. Plan played out perfectly.

Break of previous resistance. Then break of call trigger. With a bullish ribbon and previous resistance acting as support. Absolutely no reason to consider a reversal. Every time frame is bullish. Higher Lows continued to be made. Calls at support or former resistance!

Frustrating day. Just be patient enough to follow the plan. Have to have to have to stay on the 10m. Wait til obvious on the 10m only. And defer to the higher time frame.

I end up being so focused on what's going to happen. I miss what has happened and therefore what is likely to happen. And, additionally how I will or will not act depending on how the candle actually closes.

Calls at Support / Previous Resistance

Puts at Resistance / Previous Support