August 1 & Week Recap

3pm. No need to trade. If there is a setup still best to size small given the high risk nature of last hour trading. Or I could shift to 1dtes to negate that risk.

Let's see if there's a setup.

Daily

We got the mean reversion dot on Wednesday. Yesterday we cracked a new high and then closed holding the quarterly call trigger. Today we gapped down hard below the 21e, have chased down to the quarterly close and potentially finding some support. The daily is very much still bullish and a reversion to the mean is healthy and warranted.

4h

Very much bearish SPY ribbon. We found support at the 4h 200e and PO is flashing an extreme reading, so further downside before a pullback to the ribbon is unlikely, though possible! The monthly put trigger has been hit so 80% we make it to the -382 level by end of month. The SPX ribbon and structure is still bullish with the 48e serving as the gap down opening and resistance this morning. We've lost the put trigger and it is currently acting as resistance. But, can't confirm until the candle closes after hours.

Hourly

SPY hourly ribbon and structure firmly bearish. All moves back to the ribbon have been rejected. MD -1ATR is in play. Currently though the previous month high is acting as support. We've had several mean reversion dots fire without a move back to the 21e as of yet. SPX is basically showing the same thing less the mean reversion dots. An equal low was created on both charts with slightly higher PO. However the momentum is very strong to the downside. Caution with counter trend scalps.

10m

Everything is very bearish, however we have put in a lower low with higher PO. This simply signals reversion to the mean, not a full reversal. But this would be the second attempt and because it's occurring well after the mornings swing low and lower low attempt, it's more likely we get a push higher. That still means waiting for a clear support level to enter calls, especially since the bigger play is to the downside with the trend pointing down.

Trade 1

Given the low time left I went down to the 3m chart. This does not mean I ignored the 10m chart! The 10m chart still signaled downside with clear support hit and greater likelihood of a deeper pullback higher before any continuation down.

After the push higher off the low the scalp 618 was still open with an 80% of hitting by the end of the day. Then it came to finding the right entry at support. I scaled in - early - as I always tend to do. We had a huge, scary, violent tank down shortly after my entry, but because it was small size I didn't panic sell and instead waited to see if the scalp close level would hold as support. And, it did. I began to add size. I started to become concerned with my strike selection and the effect of theta on my OTM options. So, once I was able to break even on my new cost basis I started aggressively selling. While this was prudent the thesis fully played out with the cons peaking at $6 from my last entries of $1... Still a solid trade, well executed. Patience. Clear thesis. Scaling in with a size that allowed me to hold through the wiggles and add with conviction. In hindsight the best entry was the bullish engulfing tweezer bottom off the scalp close trigger or the doji holding the 21e after the engulfing.

33% return on the overall trade with a max exit of 344% and a 2% contribution on the P&L.

THIS WEEK...

I don't know what to say, other than I've been here before and have negated it before with over confidence. I will stay humble. I will focus on my process. I will wait until obvious. I will stay patient. I will scale in slowly as I'm always early. And, add as conviction grows. Or, cut because losses happen and the only thing that can derail me are large losses.

My mindset was my super power this week. I was resilient. I accepted the losses. I waited until a defensible and well articulated setup presented itself, and then waited until the right caspar entry.

I took 8 proper trade this week and 2 EOD trade. Again I separate out EOD trades because those our full risk trades with a small portion of the days profits only. These trades can and do go to zero or they hit my take profit level. I was 8/8 on scalps and 2/2 on EOD trades. We returned 26.2% on the portfolio this week.

I will stay humble. The market is going to make a fool of me. I will size appropriately and wait, wait, wait for my setup, then wait some more for my entry.