April 30 Plan

SPX continues it's slow grind up to potentially end higher than last months close! Which taking a look at the monthly chart, if we do close green, that would be an amazing bullish signal. The huge wick indicates so many trapped bears! I'll be keeping an eye on that, especially at the end of the day. I've noticed that last days of the month typically have a massive volume surge and outsized directional move in the last few minutes.

The 4h structure on SPX continues with it's bullish trajectory. We filled the bear gap yesterday. From a structural standpoint, I'd still like to see a higher low before further continuation, but for now it's best not to fight the trend!

The 4h ribbon is firmly bullish, but we've been headed sideways for a week. The 200 is specifically acting as support, and with news this morning at 830, we tanked right to it. We're also squeezing with momentum shifting negative.

On the hourly, bearish divergence is playing out, and again the news was the catalyst for the sharp move down. However, the move down so far is just to previous support and the multiday put trigger. I'd like to see a clear break of the put trigger to consider continued downside.

I struggle with this a lot. Seeing and knowing the bear flag has meaningfully broke, but by the time I have legit confirmation of that, we're already back at previous support. So, are we headed further down or are we just setting a trap down at support before ripping higher?

The answer is that it doesn't matter as long as I am only entering calls at support, and puts at resistance. So, given we're now at support, I really should only consider calls, but I don't have a clear setup for it. Therefore I will to see what happens when price returns to the ribbon to considers puts at resistance.

I ask myself, well if I know price is going back to the ribbon, why not take calls? Yes, price will always revert, the question is whether it's going to happen through consolidation- where the ribbon will catch up to price; or through price, where price reverts to the ribbon.

Given we're at support, it's best to wait and see. Hourly bias is confusing. Structure and ribbon are bullish, but we have a clear bear flag break. And, with that even if we are to continue I have to wait to enter puts at clear resistance.

To the 10m chart and a clear plan for this morning:

Much clearer here. We're biased to the downside bigly. A potential reversal, which always takes longer that I think!, is only confirmed on a break and hold of the 10/48 and Day Put trigger.

Therefore the only reason to take calls is for a scalp mean reversion play up to the 10m/21, potentially 10/48. Especially because we're so extended on the 10m!

Base case is a quick reversion back to the 10m ribbon. We can scalp calls up. But, the better play is to enter puts at the 10m ribbon for a move back to LOD if not continuation down to the -618. From a ATR probability perspective because we've already hit the -500, there's a 75% chance to get to the -618.