April 21, 2025

There are two parts to the job.

1. Analyst

2. Trade Execution

From all my previous trade plans, I know I'm solid on the analysis side. Where I continue to struggle is on the trade execution side. To put another way, I have a trade plan, but actually executing on it requires extreme patience and detachment. Detaching from the outcome continues to be a challenge, but especially if I don't follow the plan exactly.

So, why don't I follow the plan? I'm scared of losing, despite knowing that my system does not have a 100% win rate.. I will have losses. It's all good. I must continue with my analysis. Trust the analysis. Execute the trade. Repeat.

Today's Analysis and Plan

As I mentioned in Friday's post, the bias remains down! Overnight and this morning the hourly chart, is clearly down. While the multiday put trigger acted as some support, the ribbon is strong resistance, and finally led to a confirmed break of the put trigger during the 9a candle.

With the bias down, we now look to previous resistances to enter puts. The ultimate invalidation would be an hourly close in the hourly ribbon, especially above the hourly 13. Therefore it is also the least risky entry for puts.

Zooming into the 10m chart, it looks like premarket we were trying to reverse, BUT no higher high was actually made, and the 10/48 remained resistance at open. We're starting to see some support at the -618 level. Which is to be expected given how quickly we came down. The hourly is down, the 10m down. The plan is simple. Wait for price to react in the 10m ribbon and take puts, with a stop loss of a close above the 10/48. The probabilities are very much in favor of continuation, so a position with a an extremely wide stop is warranted. It's likely the 10/8 will first act as resistance with a move down to the LOD, but I wouldn't expect a further move down until a higher push into the 10m ribbon first. If that's not the case, well then I'll 'miss' the trade and wait for a higher probability entry if/when price reaches the ribbon.