9.30

A running record..

We're still bullish on the daily and 4h time frame.

Hourly is sideways.

• We've bounced off of resistance turned support 2x

• The most recent of which has yet to create a HH, so we do have the start of shifting structure to the downside

• Tight range between PWC and MD Call trigger

10m is very sideways.

• Ranging between PDL/-382 and PDC

  • Because -382 has been tapped, if we do firmly lose it, we would likely move down to the -500 and then -618. However, a firm break and retest would be required to consider puts below/near PDL.

  • CaS|PaR is at those levels and as such entries would only be justified there.

Visual Plan

So, there is no real bias other than very HTF bullishness. If price stagnates at support again I'd want to see a W with divergence from an extreme PO to consider Calls. Or, if we break PDC wait for a pullback into the ribbon with a W mini divergence to enter calls.

Puts the reverse, either a break of PDL and pullback into the ribbon with LTF M w/ divergence or a stalling out at the PDC, M, and then puts.

Especially with the PA so far there isn't any direction. So it's even more imperative to wait for price to react to the two key levels for multiple candles.

There are better and easier days to trade. Best to wait. On SPX the bias is more clearly bullish. The hourly 48 has been a bounce spot and the 21 acting as a clear closing basis support. Every dip to the PDL getting bought. No reason to expect that to stop. We had 3 candles find support at the PDL with some rounding on LTFs that could've signaled an early entry. We've breached back up through the put trigger at this point. It's likely we'll get a move up to PDC and then see. Too late to get into calls but a lessened probability of an outsized move given the lack of direction.

What did I miss? The Hourly was creating equal lows at PDL with an increasing PO. Greater likelihood of a move up. But, all good, not a clear and obvious entry, nor in the visual plan.

Though we got a huge move off the PDL as I created the plan. The plan called for a move to PDC. I could have potentially gotten in late. But, not a CasPar entry.

Currently made it up to HOD / PDC let's wait and see how we react. Multiple rejections or finally a break above?

Okay, we closed above PDC, so a move to call trigger next up. But we are extended from the ribbon and at resistance - but momentum on the 10m is strong. As it is on the 30. A loss of the 3/21 is a meaningful stop loss, but not necessarily the one that signals the trade is wrong. A 10m close below the previous candle low would suggest we're headed back down instead. So I could enter using the 10m loss as the stop with a move up to the call as take profit. The 3/21 and 10/8 are coinciding right now. A higher probability entry for calls would be down there. Worst case I miss the trade. Something else to note is that if we're headed down there that could be putting in a 3 candle reversal exactly at resistance.

SPX Scalp levels. We've hit the 382. Signaling a 65% chance of making it to the 618. 6664 to 6671. Patience is key. I want 3-4 3m candle holds at the 3m21e or a break and flip for puts back down to LOD. Expectation and bias is up given the momo on the 10m. We are also far from the most recent 3m swing low. There it goes up to the call trigger without me.

So worried about move down because we were at resistance. On the flip side we broke the PDC and held 2-3x. 3m8e held on SPX and the 3m21e held on the option premium. At this point I absolutely cannot take calls and it could absolutely continue without me. Now it's about waiting for a return to the ribbon before considering a call entry or waiting on the 10m for a bearish engulfing that may signal the start of the reversion to the mean.

6664 to 6670 took the 30 delta I've been watching 3 to 5 - 65%! I had the justification to enter, but not the ideal entry. I will wait for the ideal entry. Or alternatively I could be so confident in the target that I size small enough that I can withstand the drawdown. Take the stop or wait for the profit target.

In both 10m bounces off the PDL, a late and justifiable entry was once the 3m21e was cross, once the 3m21e flipped green and as the put trigger held. So we have a 10m bounce off support / ATR level. 3m21e break/flip - the low of the flipping candle were perfect entrys / stop points.

This is the level of clarity and specificity I need in my execution. Okay we convincingly bounced off a meaningful 10m support. Continuation up to resistance is likely after the 3m21e flips. Enter calls there with a tight stop.

Equally interesting. As we look at the swing highs. Connected the highs from before the 3m21e flips red creates the TL required to break for the next move upside.

So, applying this forward. If we want to take puts. I'll create a trendline from the lows before the 3m21e dlip up and to the right. I'd like a combo of that to break and the 3m21e to flip again. Let's see. If that TL doesn't break or the 3m21e doesn't flip. That's a justifiable entry for a move back to HOD.

What else did I miss? Well the 10m squeeze fired. So further upside likely. We were compressed in a range, we broke the range, that is when trend begins.

Price can totally continue it's march up but entry happens inside the 10m ribbon. I can wait for the fat pitch. I don't have to catch the scalp back down to the ribbon, because unless it's coming from an extreme PO, it's likely that the reversion will come through time not price.

Fine it's going to keep going but my edge requires entries in the ribbon.

For a move down to the ribbon first I need a proper reversal on the 10m. Then we wait for the 21e's to flip on the LTF. Otherwise price is likely to continue, which again means nothing relative to if I should play the continuation or not, because it's not a ribbon entry.

We got another move down to $3 on the options premium with a hold of the 3m21e then a rip to 9... 200%. Yes we're not in the ribbon but given the squeeze and the consistent holding of the 10m8e we're clearly moving up. The hold of the 3m21e and previous resistance turned support on the options chart potentially justifies an entry.

The 10m squeeze fired. Previous Res turned Sup. Sup continue to hold. No reversal patterns on the 10m. We're continuing.

Okay finally got into the extreme PO reading SPX 3m. Plus the beginnings of an evening star reversal. I went ahead and entered a small put position. I exited at previous support given the closeness to the end of day. I do believe we'll see more downside but there's no reason to hold given the time.

I drew down 20% ultimately took a 30% profit. With a max exit of 60% and a drawdown to max exit of 100%.

Patience was rewarded. As it always is. Yes I was frustrated at missing the easier and longer move up. But, a defensible setup presented itself and I executed flawlessly given I didn't have any scarring from a poor prior trade.

Interestingly the 1m21e TL broke and flipped. This was a classic bull flag breakout. 50delta cons went $4 to $11..

I think in the end my bullishness was correct. My hesitation entering at PDL support according to my plan led me to wait. What I wish I thought through. HTF bullish. Yet another hold of support. We're bullish is there a HTF trend line break that would signal further upside. Or are we only heading back to previous resistance. Continuation requires TL break.

We had HTF bullish bias. We had yet another hold of support. An early entry would've been the 3m21e break and flip. A later entry would've been the PDC break and hold -- which was also a break and hold of the TL! That signaled a move up to the call trigger. Once we broke the call trigger, a move back to the ribbon and call trigger would've been a great entry given the fired squeeze.

HTF Bullish

Where's support

Did support hold and then where are we headed?

• back to the ribbon for a retest and move down back to support

• or if the 3m21e flips what the next atr level up.

Given we're bullish are there any HTF bullish TLs to be aware of?

FLIP the chart. Easier to believe a bearish TL break will retrace to the previous low and then some!

1. Hourly hold of support via a

2. 10m reversal pattern off PDL/382/LOD

3. 3m21e flip marks the stop/entry

   1. extra confluence is previous highs made before 3m21e flipped red

   2. use 3m8e as stop up to next levels

   3. switch to 3m21e as get more and more in profit

4. exit at major levels up