9.15

What are the ATR Probabilities? That is my system.

Wait until absolutely obvious on the 10m.

Then see how price is reacting to the 3/21.

Where is the SH or SL?

Enter there.

Trade as if futures brackets.

• Every time frame bullish

• Gap up, 500 broke at open, support tested, 618 hit.

• We lost the 8e and 500 level, but the 48e had a morning star reversal

So bias up

I 'missed' the morning star reversal

then rather than being extra patient to wait for support to be tested again...

I convince myself that we would continue given we had three green candles in a row

But, of course we were need the supply zone

I did wait for a pullback to the 10m8e and a hold of the 3m21e

And, then also very quickly exited once the 10m candle closed as a bearish engulfing

The bearish engulfing off the descending resistance trendline was more than enough reason to get short

AFTER the bearish engulfing, the 10m21e was tested almost 30 minutes before the flush to previous support and the hourly 21e.

I was in puts early but with size I took profit before the test of the previous low. Additionally, every time price pumped into the 3m ribbon but still below the 10m21e, I was worried I was wrong.

Those were all additional entry points.

Eventually the flush played out. Given how strong the hourly ribbon was, it was less probably to have a major flush any lower.

In the late afternoon we were stuck in a box. Once the box finally broke, the scary dip back down to support was the buy entry.

It's a matter of having a directional and probable thesis. Then actually waiting long enough for support to test. Support will hold, unless it doesn't. But, that's why it's so very important to wait wait wait until support.

Not a terrible day despite the loss. I shouldn't have taken the calls but I entered in an okay spot and quickly took the loss when the PA dictated otherwise.

Risk management is not an edge though. Yes I managed risk. But, I did not follow my edge. Waiting for price to react to the previous low and seeing the bounce was the tell for calls. Or, simply not trading given the choppiness of the PA was the ideal play.