9/11

What are the ATR Probabilities? That is my system.

Wait until absolutely obvious on the 10m.

Then see how price is reacting to the 3/21.

Where is the SH or SL?

Enter there.

Trade as if futures brackets.

I 'missed' the morning rip. I m'missed' the morning pullback.

Then, given we had already gone +1ATR and seemingly found resistance, I wanted to short.

But, the trend was very clearly up and I wanted to test the idea of waiting for a 3.21 fail and recapture in the direction of the 10m trend.

We rejected resistance and lost the 3.21 - I could've taken puts, but no obvious reason to enter on the 10m.

Then we recaptured the 3.21 on the next candle. I didn't enter calls because we had already rejected at +1 ATR and while yes the trend was up, the probabilities of continuation were less. However, had I entered after the 3.21 reclaim, that's 3.3 points from the low, and 6.5+ points to the high. 1:2 risk reward. Not bad.

I hesitated though because it wasn't convincing enough of a reclaim.

Instead I waited for price to react to the previous HOD. Once we were unable to break it, that was a low risk entry for puts.

I didn't love it because it was counter trend, but I guess I was impatient.

Entered at 4.5 - contracts never drew down below 3.9. Once we lost the 3.21 I felt more comfortable in the trade. Every push down I scaled out. Every push up to and past the 3.21 I felt like I was going to leave money on the table.

The mindset I should've had was, I'm in profit. This is only 1 trade. So, what if I get stopped out? From a PA standpoint there's no reason to get out. I was simply feeling like, I'd feel silly if I didn't exit with real profit. But, I was able to resist exiting all runners because again I was able to pause and realize I was in profit and that it's only one trade. I could always get back in.

We pushed down further and I exited my 2nd to last runner. We then made an aggressive push up only to reject the 3.21 again. We moved back down from there but perfectly bounced of the mini-low I had exited earlier.

A classic W with divergence in an uptrend. I considered exiting my runner and considered getting long. I did neither and stopped out at breakeven.

It is what it is. I do NOT have to get the most out of every trade. It's not even possible. This was only 1 trade. If I had halved the size and taken a 2nd trade we'd likely be in the same place.

It's about identifying the probabilities given my system.

Then, waiting for a clear indication of direction on the 10m.

Then, wait for price to react to the 3.21

Enter at CasPar.

In my trade every time we ripped into the 3.21 I was worried I was wrong, and those were each opportunities to add to my position.

That's the common theme. My focus on am I wrong or am I right based on the live candle. What I need to focus on is not my emotional response or desire for price to go one way or the other. Rather, I should solely be focused on how I will act or not act depending on how the candle closes. I should be sizing in a way that no outcome can hurt and therefore as long as the PA suggest staying in. I stay in.

It's not about maximizing the unrealized gain. It's about letting the setup play out unless the technical level / stop or emergency stop is breached.

I was able to sit through the wiggles given my entry. I was in profit the entire time so there was less of a desire to take profit early.

Plus, it was only 1 trade and I can't time the top or bottom. I will take what I can get and move on to the next opportunity.

Arrow was my first entry. As always a tad EARLY. But, I held and even added despite the move up. We still were unable to breach the previous high. And, we put in an evening star reversal. That was actually the confirmation to enter. We had a double top with divergence at a key level of +1. Then we had an evening star reversal. So the play was confirmed as down. Then it was a matter of entering as close to resistance as possible. Which after the evening star reversal, the SL could've been the high of the previous candle. Choppy descent after that but the 3.21 held as resistance.

Later the second hold of the 48e was the signal to exit puts or get long.

The reward for calls was extremely low, so while puts were difficult to take given the momentum. Calls were also unfavorable. Perhaps a good day to have just taken off until a clear reversal pattern emerged on the 10m.

Taking tomorrow off. Really solid start to September. Smaller dollar amounts, but consistent steady, long term achievable wins.