12.3

Yesterday was a great day in terms of exiting once I was clearly wrong. I took the stop. I was wrong, still made money. And, better yet, had capacity to take the other side and ended up earning more. It's all about having a clear plan. Sizing appropriately. Simply cutting when wrong and waiting, waiting, waiting for the next move. I don't have to catch every move I think I have an edge on. I can miss it. And, just wait for the next A+ setup.

Daily

Still bullish. We've broken out of the TL resistance from ATH and are currently flagging sideways for the past 4 days. The Quarterly call trigger is acting as solid support with the Daily ribbon just below. On the flip side we are just below the supply zone from early November that started the most recent drop down to the quarterly put trigger demand zone. Bull gap at 6780 is still open. No major sell until we lose that.

The last 4 days have been in a clear range. No real expectation of continuation in either direction until the range is broken. Plenty of opportunity on LTF within the range, but nothing worth holding.

4h

Previous month close is clear resistance. With the 8e acting as solid support. Bull gap is in line with the monthly put trigger. So, if the previous close continues to hold as resistance a move down to the bull gap is in play. We're in a very tight squeeze which makes sense given the rangy PA. Structure is bullish, however we're continuing sideways with lower PO. Will we flush down or are we reverting for the next leg up. Patience is key.

Monthly put trigger very much in play if the 21e breaks.

Hourly

No clear bias on the hourly. Sideways. Thin ribbons with the range continuing to hold. EMA's aren't really signaling much given how thin the ribbon is. If I was trading the hourly right now at 9:!5a I'd actually look to long back up to the 21e. If however the hourly closes below the 48e it may be sign of a sell off back to the bull gap. For now though we're very clearly at support. So calls if it holds. Puts only if it breaks and holds as resistance on the retest. Potentially a break of TL support. Would be the early entry for puts, but best to scalp down to bottom of range only, runners for the break. Or re-enter puts on the retest.

10m

We are in the trigger box. Call trigger clear resistance and put trigger currently support. PO is at extreme on the 10m.

Where I missed yesterday... I was assuming we'd double bottom. I entered puts at the ribbon on 3m21e resistance holds, but we never got the flush down. If it was going to happen it'd have happened sooner than it did. In retrospect it was simply slowingly and choppily eating into the ribbon. We finally flipped the 3m21e and that was the move to calls. I felt good about the thesis hence my ability to by OTM and hold. That's where I would like to get to today. Instead assuming a W or assuming a 3m21e reversal. Just observe. What is happening is more important than what I think may happen. It doesn't matter what may happen, if matters if and how I will act depending on what eventually happens. Observe.

Exit at previous support and previous resistance. The closer it gets the more I'll think it's going to break this time. But, whether it is or not. I exit.

6790 P or 6800 P 6825C or 6840C

Options are extremely extended on PO. Patience and observation is the game.

EOD TRADE MY SETUP!

Hourly at resistance away from the ribbon. 10m struggling to break above the next level up with divergence! Now wait for the 3m to flip and hold.

I of course got in a tad early for fear of missing. Which come on man there's no such thing - always another opportunity.

We very quickly breached the 3m21e to the upside but on a closing basis unable to actually create a new body high and eventually closed below the 3m21e. That was the entry. Cons were at 50 cents, ripped to $1, then down to 20 cents and ripped to $2. I took on too much risk but conviction allowed me to stay in.

Two things. This was my setup. It played out. Amazing job identifying it in real time. Now it's a matter of building the reps. Letting the setup play out regardless of outcome. Two another way to play it was to take 1dte or higher delta cons to allow for holding through the volatility. (Which the volatility is really just on the EOD 0dtes not as much the underlying PA).

Wow, yea the 6875 puts. Where I originally entered the 50s was trading at $18. On the 'scary' rip that ultimately closed below the 3m21e dipped to $15 and closed the candle at $17.5. Meanwhile they ran to $25 on the move down to the scalp close / day call trigger.

Ultimately a $300 risk to $600 reward. Much less downside with more money, plus ultimately more upside than all the OTM cons I bought.

With the setup EOD higher delta may be the play.