12.1+ Fav Setup Again

Daily - Bullish

Bullish again. Still? Squeeze fired. Could rip and leave everyone behind. Or, flag then go higher. Bull gap at 6780ish that will at some point be tested. Previous supply at 6870. Currently closer to previous swing high then previous swing low.

4h - Bullish

Putting in a HH albeit just below a supply zone. Ribbon is bullish so will take a lot more effort to dive, but a higher low will be made at some point. 675 spy is the swing put trigger and likely the first test on a way to making a higher low. It roughly maps to the SPX bull gap as well. SPX heading into distribution zone - typically starting to round at this PO level. Will definitely go higher but generally speaking it tends to start the slowing of momentum and then creating a pivot.

Hourly - In transition

Huge bear gap from Friday to Sunday opening. Midnight swing low tested and held at 7a with meaningfully higher PO. Though the PO for midnight was not in accumulation, so not a significant divergence. Likely just signaling a move to mean reversion. Ribbon is very skinny, pivot flipped red, and structure starting to shift to the downside.

SPX very much bullish. But with PO in the distribution zone. Potentially making a HH with lower PO. Mean reversion would put as at 6800. 6825 a safer bet.

10m - Slightly bearish

Clear support at overnight and premarket low. Premarket low with significant divergence - mean reversion complete. Put trigger / PDL clear resistance. -618 is support for now. Probabilities suggest we head down to 618 if we lose the 500 level again. Especially given the 10m trend is slightly bearish. If the 500 holds, we'll wait to see how price reacts to the 10m ribbon again and if it moves up then how will price react at the premarket swing high / 10m200e / 382 level.

The goal today - as it should be everyday - is not to try to trade. Rather wait until an obvious setup. Articulate before entry where the stop is and why. Also, consider what is the technical stop while in the trade. Previous candle OHLC? EMAs? Trendlines? There is no reason to exit early if the trade is a proper setup.

Best to miss a trade and enter 1 or 2 cons before sizing up. Moves take 30+ minutes. Pivots are usually separated by hours. If I enter calls at a low before really moving at some point price will come close to retesting that low to put in just a slightly higher low. This is how price moves, not in a straight line. Once in profit let the trade run prp stop out at break even on the underlying.

6790P is -618 spx and next level down. 6825 is put trigger.

Ripped off the open. Bullish engulfing on the first 10m candle. 2nd 10m candle retested previous candle low and then ripped. It was at this point I was frustrated I missed it but my bias and plan was down. So all was fine. I waited, waited until we started to show signs of weakness. We hit the middle of the bear gap. And started to fade. Of course we don't move in a straight line. First the 1m created a w, the 3m chopped sideways. I entered 1 con then added as we were unable to break out the high. Of course as I added size every wiggle against hurt and had me looking to exit before the underlying indicated it was ready to. Once I was well in profit and had exited most the position it was clear to me that the proper thing to do was wait until the 3m21e broke or we reach a point very close to the LOD - which was my original thesis. We ripped off the open, but imo it was unlikely to continue ripping without a retest of the open. I obviously didn't trust that thesis enough to hold the whole position until then, but I did hold a runner til then - which was sold at 100%+.

What I'm especially proud of today was feeling like I missed a trade and NOT chasing it or rushing into a trade to 'make up' for what I left on the table. Instead I waited for a setup. I scaled in. Added size later. This was the one instance my scale in was actually the low entry, but still an amazing trade across the board. I still need to work on deferring to the underlying PA regardless of my size.

Favorite Setup!

First in the overnight / morning which I 'missed'.

10m swing lows with much higher PO, from an extreme position. Once the 3m21e flipped that was justification to get long and stay long.

Then the trade I took. 2nd swing high. Much higher with lower PO. I got in near the top. But once the 3m21e was lost, then once the 3m21e flipped, there was more confirmation to stay long until LOD. A calmer approach would've have seen this. Plus lost the put trigger.