10.7

1pm

Still bullish on the daily. Trying for our 8th straight move up.

Big sudden flush this morning shifting the trend clearly down.

Clear support from 11:30 to 12:30 at the -786 level. That very much means nothing about a reversal, rather simply that the -786 was support and therefore the only place to consider calls.

Trend down, so we're considering puts only- in the ribbon.

At 12:30 we made a big push into the ribbon, with an evening star reversal printed on the 3m at 12:45. If I'm focused on catching the trade versus being observant and patient I'd chase into puts there or hesitate and then feel I missed. However, my system requires 2+ 10m candles to confirm a support or resistance. The 12:40 candle retraced the entire 12:30 candle move which again added to me feeling like I had missed it. At that point with the ribbon and the 618 level clearly rejecting, I became more confident that we would test previous support at the 786, if not continue down to -1ATR.

I have my visual plan, I have my thesis, I have a rejection of the 10m21e in trend, I have my edge of further downside. Therefore, I now need to wait for resistance to actually enter puts. There's a clear downward trend line, the 10m21e continued to act as resistance on each test, and each 3m push up was failing to create a new high. Each of those pushes were buyable with a tight stop of PDL close.

The 40 delta puts were consistently finding support around $4.40 with several pushes to $7.5. A great trade right there. But, my analysis was based on the 10m chart with an expected move down to the 786. We had a "scary" move up at 1:30, creating tweezer bottom of the 618 level. But, again no HH was made on the 3m. This was the scale entry with -500 serving as the SL. After that entry, the 3m tanked, putting in a bearish engulfing that led us down to the 618. This served as additional confirmation and a justification to add for a move down to the 786 and potentially -1.

As I became more and more in profit I tended to watch the premium chart vs. staying laser focused on the underlying PA which clearly showed no sign of a positive reversal. Price eventually dipped down to the 786 before perfectly bouncing off and at the point putting in the first part of a W or just ripping from there.

My bias is W because the 10m13e has rejected 2x since then. However, I am also hesitant given we failed to create a LL and breach support on the 10m.

Doesn't matter though. Trade in trend secured and executed.

I think the ultimate factor toward a successful trade today was the extreme patience. I powered through several instances of feeling I missed it, only for the PA to become a bit clearer.

Perhaps this is a new rule. Watch for 90 minutes before actually entering a trade. Yes I could very well miss the move, but if I haven't yet, I'll feel that much more confident in the trade.