10.2

My mistake today. Not starting on the HTF.

Yes it's hard to worry but so much about bias on time frames higher than an hour given my style of trading. But, on the flip side it does weigh into the probabilities of continuation one way or the other.

So generally speaking I shouldn't expect continuation down despite how strong the 10m trend looked. We had clearly found support, the question was where would we retrace to and if it would turn into a reversal or just be a pullback.

My second mistake was not staying on the 10m chart. Staying on the 10m chart means waiting for candles to close. I've proven time and time again I'm consistently early on trades AND even if I think I've missed it, I usually have several more chances to get in.

My third mistake was not exiting immediately. This happened for two reasons 1. I sized in a way that I couldn't get back in or take the opposing trade. This kept me biased to my position rather than exiting and potentially flipping direction as it started to become very clear to me we were headed up. 2. I didn't accept the loss- which is silly because I then lost more than I would've wanted. The best loser wins.

Today's price action was slow but very clear.

Hourly bullish. 10m flush to start the day. Very clear support at the put trigger. A slow breaking in of the ribbon. A break and retest of PDC before we continued higher. At no point did the 10m actually put in a pattern suggesting downside.

1. Hourly Structure

   1. Sup/DZ/Swing Low & Res/SZ/Swing High

2. 10m Structure

   1. Sup/DZ/Swing Low, Res/SZ/Swing High + SR Flips

3. 10m ATR Plan - Continuation or Vommy

4. Stay on the 10m, period.

   1. If in down trend

      1. Need ATR resistance or ATR support break

      2. Need consistent holds of resistance

      3. Need to be closer to Res/SZ/Swing High

      4. Need a bearish TL that ultimately breaks! (from lows just before 21e turned green)

         1. or failed ivommy

      5. Candle stick patter that confirms change in direction

         1. Identify previous candle resistance

      6. Only then can we go down to the 3m timeframe

      7. If the 3m21e has turned negative/stayed resistance, create bullish TL connecting highs and be stop loss

   2. If in up trend

      1. Need ATR support or ATR resistance break

      2. Need 3+ holds of support

      3. Need to be closer to Sup/DZ/Swing Lo

      4. Need a bullish TL that ultimate breaks! (from highs just before 21e turned red)

      5. or failed vommy

      6. Candlestick pattern that confirms change in direction

         1. identify previous candle support

      7. Only then can we go down to the 3m timeframe

         1. if the 3m21e has turned positive/stayed support, create bearish TL connect lows and be stop loss

   3. If 10m closes past 48e (vommy)

   4. If 10m stuck in ATR range

5. Enter with clear plan to exit on stop loss close

Because I want down to the 3m too early, I was eager to see a rejection of the PDC, then a flush below the 10m200e and entered. I was with the 10m trend but ultimately as much as the trend was down, we were very slowly eating into ribbon, consistently holding it as support and the PDC as resistance. After the dragonfly doji held the 10m8e we breached the PDC only to dump again. But that candle close did not create any real pattern signaling downside. Especially given the rising support and the fact no bear flag had broken. Every reversal starts as a flag. Continuation is signaled after a break.

Direction - Retracement - Flag break - Previous candle CASPAR - that's it.

Trading the 10m doesn't require sniper entries. It requires wider stops and longer holds.