10.1

Two days ago I was emphatic about waiting for an in ribbon entry on the 10m. Yesterday I was equally emphatic, it never came, and I took a very quick scalp down, rather than enter at any point on the 30 point rise in the afternoon.

The difficult thing about waiting for the an IN RIBBON entry on the 10m, is when we do have strong trend or a squeeze thats fired, it's difficult to enter and easy to see a counter trend opportunity.

Ultimately, given the strength on the 10m and the width of the ribbon the 3m, we could use the 3m ribbon as entry points. Riskier yes, but tighter stops as well. Position size makes everything easier to withstand.

This mornings plan - classic continuation or vommy:

Clearly heading up from overnight lows and squeezing with the 10m21e and -618 constantly testing and acting as support. At 920a if we fail to breach the 48e that is justification for calls.

And, this is what happened. We immediately ripped 10 points. I "missed" it. However, we had a pretty strong move back to the original ideal entry point. Based on the 9:40 10m candle it'd be fair to be 'scared' to enter calls, but in reality the support held again. I didn't even have to get in right then because the next candle ripped up and held the ribbon. That was also justification for entry.

Then we broke the put trigger and pushed higher than the HOD. If we were to continue PDC is next up. On SPX that coincides with 6990. Those calls after the put trigger breach hovered between $4 and $5 - 25% just in the flag. Once PDC hit those cons returned 50%. And, in reaching the call trigger hit $16... 300%.

Point is today, like yesterday, I failed to factor in the strength of the 3m ribbon itself. Once the 10m is clear in it ascent, we can resort to the 3m for entry parameters.

Even now there's no reason to even consider counter because we're not at extreme PO levels. My counter trend setup requires an M or W from extreme readings. So whether or not I get in with the trend, I most definitely have no justification to counter it.

Most recently the 10m13e acted as a bounce point. We dipped, down there then recaptured the 10m8e. On the 3m the 48e seems to be consistently holding. We will wait for either of those to hit before considering calls. Momentum will likely take is higher but the risk reward for entering here is not good.

The hourly squeeze fired after the 11a candle. We broke out on the flag, plenty of justification to consider calls.

Regardless of what setup, direction, ribbon etc I'm using as justification. Perhaps my system will be such that I never enter until the 3m21e. That skews the r/r in my favor. Put another way, the moves have enough potential to actually hold. Vs. entering at the 3m8e, there's less room to run before another pullback. Helps put me at ease. Whether or not it goes without me, if it's not near the 3m21e it just doesn't matter. Because that's the only place I'll enter. That's the common link between all the proper entries. 10m justification with 3m21e as proper entry and stop.

I have a hard time with trend days. And, it's because even now I'm seeing things like, we're pretty extended from the hourly. We've already moved 1 ATR. Vix is looking like a LL with higher PO and the put trigger right below. We perfectly rejected the SPY 382 - can't reach it on SPX.

None of this means we're going to reverse, but it does mean it's not the best time to enter calls.

Defer to the trend.

10m clearly up. No reason to consider counter given my system requires extreme PO readings to think counter. No reversal indications on the 10m, just a simple digestion/flag of the move up.

Breached the call trigger. Next candle pushed higher. Next candle held the previous candle low. Next candle held the 8e and call trigger. Zooming down to the 3m...

Moves into the 3m 13-21 zone were getting bought. We had 6 minutes of trying to drive lower and a FVG to the left. Could entered there at $3. Instead I chose to wait for the bullish engulfing and entered at $3.90. We drew down to $3.5 but the 1m gave extra confidence.

Connecting the highs previous to the 1m21e flip create a nice trendline. Zero reason to consider counter given the HTF strength. Once that TL broke and the 21e continued to hold. No reason to exit. Despite the drawdown to $3.5.

I exit after breaching the next scalp level up. Of course I first felt like I exited too soon as price made it to $7.6 after my sell at $6.4. Then I felt like a genius because price 'tanked' back down to the 1m21e and the premium reached $4.1 (only 20 cents higher than my entry). Only to again feel silly for exiting early because we continued higher. At this point the scalp GG is open and likely to hit which would be at 6714.

Interestingly enough my originally thesis called for the action and I was looking at the 6115 calls, ($0.90 to $3.8) but I didn't like how OTM they were. Instead I went with 6705. Instead of taking profit, albeit a large one, form a PA perspective there was no reason to get out. The inability to break into the 3m ribbon or actually close blow the 1m21e was itself a great technical stop. We continued to march higher on price. No concern of reversal.

As long as we haven't breached the most previous LH - rip level - it's all just pull backs. Let it run.

Regardless I did a great job improving on yesterday. Yesterday I was focused on the penetration of the 10m ribbon. When it wouldn't come I sought out reasons to counter. I did the flip side today. We had a strong 10m ribbon again with an ability to penetrate the ribbon. So, what does that mean? Where are importantly levels on the 10m and how price responding to the 3m ribbon. We then got exactly what I like to see which is 3 candles with consistent support, the last of which a bullish engulfing. Perfect entry. While yes I could have held longer, I also captured 65%!

Update. IF I had waited for the first close below the 3m8e my exit would've been $12.7. If I waited for the 3m21e to fail on a closing bases, the exit would've been $10. If I waited until the day 618 hit, $14. I entered at $3.9, exited at $6.4.

No counter trend with out an engulfing or M/W on the 10m. Defer to the trend - assuming there is one!

SMALLER SIZE NOT ONLY GOOD FOR RISK BUT ENABLES ME TO FOCUS ON UNDERLYING PA INSTEAD OF PREMIUM CHART