8.12: The Other Shoe Dropped..

Things felt too good. I was painfully aware of how well things were going and subsequently on guard for the other shoe to drop. Well it actually didn't "drop", I was the one that spiked it into the ground.

July 11th through August 11 - yes I'm cherry picking (July 10 was my last blow up day) - I returned 159.63%!

That's 20 trading days. 18 of which were green. Each green day contributing an average 9.5% of the July 11th trading balance.

Since April 1, when I started writing publicly "every day" I returned 47% through August 11. (Again, stupid day on July 10 crushed me- was at 70.57% before that.)

Prior to yesterday I had 13 profitable trading days in a row. In that span I took 22 trades. Only 4 were losses. A win rate of 82%.

I had forgotten how to lose. How to accept a loss. Truly understand the probabilities. Even with an 82% win rate, 18% of trades were losses. I forgot that yesterday.

I also 'forgot' to engage in my process that got me on that run. Which was writing down my thesis here before executing on a trade. I know this has been behind my run. I know this is incredibly important. So why did I ignore it? I started feeling over confident. I felt I didn't need to do the boring part of the process.

I opened the charts and just went. But, of course I know, that writing down my thesis, having a real plan, executing against that plan - all those steps are what makes it palatable to accept a loss. I'm more than happy to lose a trade when I've followed my process.

Yesterday, I didn't follow my process. I was losing a trade and didn't take the loss. Taking a loss with no process of plan crushes me. So, in an attempt to 'avoid' the loss, I averaged down, again and again and again.

The chart was clear as day yesterday. Within a second of the charts loading I thought "wow, we're bullish af" which means calls at support only, unless a clear reversal pattern presents itself.

I immediately went seeking out reversals with little justification. If I had followed the process, I believe I would've been very comfortable with my bullish bias and either waited for calls at support or at least been extra cautious with counter trend scalps.

Instead I had my worst day ever.

April 1 through August 11 - +47%

April 1 through August 12 - -56%

July 11 through August 11 - +159.63%

July 11 through August 12 - -23.15%

Positives....

I'm only a little bit worse off than I was on July 11th. I can do it again.

I've had a few of these gut wrenching idiotic stupid frustrating days in the last 3 years. I'd typically be despondent, solemn, in shock, and berating myself endlessly. Despite being the worst day, I feel extremely positive. I feel resilient. I have been here before - literally just 20 trading days ago. I can do this again. I have the process. I have the confidence. I now believe I have the mindset. It's not about the outcome. It's about sticking to the process day in and day out.

I compare this hurdle to my attempts at breaking 80 a few weeks ago. I was +1 through 13 and I started focusing on the fact I could finish bogey/hole and still break 80. I started focusing on the outcome of breaking 80. I started focusing on securing a bogey. I very clearly changed the mindset that got me to that position in the first place.

The next few rounds I found myself in the same position. A tad over par with only a few holes to go. But, I learned from the detriment of letting outcome focused thoughts creep in. Instead I focused on execution. Let the previous shots go and just focus on how to execute the next shot. An extreme focus on the process and acceptance of the outcome- each swing. 75, 73, 75.

My last 20 trading days - prior to yesterday - I found myself at +1 through 13. Monday and Yesterday, my mindset shifted from process to outcome. I shot 80. But, I'm getting closer. And, this will be the final blow before the flood gates open.

I needed one last reminder of how important my process is. How important it is to complete the process. How clarifying the process is for my trading. How accepting of any outcome I can be if I follow my process. How writing allows me to hone in on the probabilities. How writing reminds me to focus on 1000 trades, not the next individual trade. It's about showing up to write.

Yesterday, I didn't write. I didn't write because I felt like I was going to miss the trade. There's no such thing. And that mindset always leads to eventual loss. So, it was great that I so monumentally fucked up yesterday. It was a great reminder.

Process

Over

Profits

Ps. If you're reading this. I really didn't want to admit this loss. Write about this loss. But, I think that's exactly why I have to put it out there. Writing helps process it. Writing helps accept it. Yesterday was yesterday. I will focus on the process today. And, each and every day going forward.

Pps. Just read this about waiting for the other shoe to drop:

Take a moment and acknowledge a big dream of yours or something that’s going really well for you right now. Put it out there fully and then just notice. Are you 100% excited and present with the bliss, or are your secretly waiting for that other shoe to drop? If you find yourself waiting for that other shoe, acknowledge you have a case of the Other Shoe Syndrome and shift your focus in the moment to gratitude. How can you thank where you are? How can you celebrate the dream before it’s here? How can you make your life a thank you?

While the other shoe might inevitably fall, we get to choose whether it’s a drop or a tap dance.