12.11

If you're actually reading this regularly you will probably see I'm in consistent in process. Some days I do the full prep. And it works. Some days I do the full prep and then forget it. Some days I don't do prep and keep it simple and it works. Some days I don't do prep and it shows. Some days I do or don't do prep, have a great first trade, then want more and force something to happen.

On the flip side, I do feel I'm finally honing in on exactly what I'm looking for and the rationale.

I lock in to PA when we've interacted for several candles around the 3m21e. The 10m and Hourly give probabilities for what is more likely to happen.

Eg. If we're extended on the hourly and 10m, while we could continue up or down, it is less likely. We are far from previous Swing Lows or Swing Highs. While on a 0dte basis I could enter in trend on the 3m21e. It's less likely to continue, so it's better to wait for the 3m21e to flip and scalp counter to the 10m21e.

Or. If there's clear trend down on the hourly. The 10m is sideways and the 3m tries has flipped but not fully reversing. We wait for the 3m to flip back in the direction of the hourly trend.

My bias is to the 3m21e BUT the higher time frames give context. Is hourly extended up? down? trending? sideways? Is 10m extended up? down? trending? sideways? Depending on how both are positioned, that will alter the probabilities for what is more or less likely to occur at the 3m21e.

Better yet it should create a bias for what direction. What would have occur for me to enter. And, where is that completely wrong.

I feel better with high delta cons because pullbacks don't hurt. It's as if trading futures. On the flip side, if we do get a 5 to 10 point move, only a few high delta cons make a huge impact on P/L. I also don't need to secure it all in one trade.

The benefit of a large bankroll is buying high delta. And, entering several trades (should they present themself) or enter and be wrong and flip bias. I don't need to make it all in 1 trade.

If I can stick to this level of thinking and execution - over time I'll be able to size up. But for now I've just got to stick to high delta, 1 con at a time and give myself multiple attempts to enter a trade.

Yesterday I got in early. Exited. Only to realize I was on the right side. NBD if size properly and scale in. The only way to hold size down to a price target is to inspect price action and commit to exiting only if a technical stop clicks. When I've got a good entry, there's just no reason to exit until the target is reached or the previous candle low or high is broken.

I know this. But, I need to practice this. With size I am unable to practice the execution I'd like.

I commit to trading high delta 55+ 1 contract at a time. It's easier and 5+ points moves the needle! Commit to long term.

Important to articulate the trade thesis. ie. The 3m21e is bull/bear. The 10m is trending in the same direction. We're in the hourly ribbon. Where is clear swing low and swing high? If we're to continue in trend I wait until support near the 3m21e. What is support? What happens if support breaks? What I am waiting for then? If I do enter where are we likely headed? What ATR level? Did a trendline connecting pivots break or hold?

Yesterday EOD I was able to size because I knew exactly where and why I would exit ahead of time. And I was comfortable with the loss, because I was comfortable with the setup. Before I enter the trade I also need to understand where and why I'm exiting. And, simply wait to stop out or hit the target. That is where high delta will help. Pullbacks won't crush me the way OTM cons do.

Hourly

We still haven't actually broken our of the range from the last two weeks. We teased on the high side yesterday but pretty volatile. We have a high and a clear low. We're retracing up to the previous high. We've gone about 60% of the way. The 4h and daily are bullish. The hourly low created bounced perfectly off the MD put trigger and we're finding resistance at the MD close level. We are potentially putting in a tweezer top, though could just be a move back to previous candle low and the Hourly 8e.

Currently heading up from swing low to swing high. Support is near the -500 level.

10m

Trend is clearly up so more likely to continue up. The daily put trigger is premarket high / resistance right now. Just above the -618 is support, but the swing low is down near PDL.

Continuation up to put trigger. Reversal only after the 10m48e is lost. Can get in so late on a move down because they tend to be quicker with clear waterfalls. Previous support turns resistance, and thats the entry.

While the 3m is now red, there is no 10m divergence to suggest we're headed any lower than the 10m21e. Given the 10m trend, I'd prefer to wait for a recapture of the 3m21e to get long only up to the put trigger. We'd either continue up to PDC or if we find resistance again, and there's divergence, that'd be the time to take puts down. On the flip side we are spending real time below the 10m8e and already rejected the put trigger. Already retraced the move down almost 70%. So, could head down to the 618.

Right now the 3m21e is down. Given the 10m I don't love the likelihood of quick move down, but an entry at the previous swing high / supply zone for a move down to local low is warranted but 'only' a 5 point move.

On the other hand if the previous swing high is reclaimed - meaning a support that turned resistance is now back to potentially being support, that's the trend entry for calls back up to the put trigger. 3m21e is down but bias still has to be up given the 10m trend.

Reclaimed that level. Can enter 1. A loss of the 382 on a closing basis is a stop out. Dips to be bought otherwise. Exit at the put trigger unless previous candle lows are breached.

Tried to enter 1 premarket at 17.5, let's see what happens. 19.5 was just hit at the put trigger. 3m21e has flipped and had 3 holds. We could continue to ride the 21e up. Or given we're close to the 10m swing high, potentially wait for divergence to set in and consider an early entry into puts down to the 10m21e. But that means waiting a long time to ensure a rounding top or clear reversal pattern has emerged. If we lose the 3m21e that would be plenty justification to take puts instead. It's a tight range so I'm not excited about calls.

I will miss the trade and wait for the next. Price doesn't move in a straight line. Where is my stop on a closing basis. 3m21e continues to hold. 10m is bullish. I could just get in 1 con at the 21e. 1 where I'd want to stop out. Then stop out or be in profit if we do move up. No big deal.

If we're going to head down, there's plenty of chances to enter.

1. exit at the put trigger

2. when we couldn't break out higher or when i exited my call

3. take puts!

We were unable to break previous support turned resistance held as resistance.

Also higher time frame context. We opened with a huge bear gap. Below the put trigger and it was holding as resistance.

So, I wanted to buy the dip. But, didn't and we ripped 40 points before putting in a red 3m candle..

Then at that red candle I was prepared for puts. But hesitated. Hesitated. Hesitated. Took a late, sizeable entry.

I need to just enter 1 at a time when I want to. Accept the loss. Watch the PA. Add or cut. NBD. More at bats.

EOD..

I read it perfectly. 10m struggling to really break the call trigger. We'd already moved so much. The 3m tried to create a new high but rejected just below HOD. The next candle finally dipped below 3m resistance turned support. Super high volume and reclaimed it but still price moved down. Once we dipped below and still closed down. That was signal to look at puts. Entering at resistance. The 3m 8e that continued to hold as resistance. I entered. but as typically happens there was a scary rip that was then ultimately sold off. And that was the final confirmation to entering puts. My entry was great. $11.30. I bought 10 cons but ultimately only needed 5 with a longer hold. We eventually got to my target which if I held all the way through just 3 cons would've been the equivalent profit. Load up and exit quick or size small and hold until target. Sizing small takes big losses out of the equation if I'm wrong.

Interesting to note in this trade I started with 1 con at 10.7 and then exited at BE because I thought I was wrong. Then I entered just 1 con again which helped me realize that we were more likely to head down.

Size small. Enter 1 and wait. Build reps holding the con until target. Unless PA dictates to stop out. That requires a close against me not just a move against me. Candle closes are all that matters. I have to size small enough to let 3 minutes pass without freaking.

Once I have a clear thesis and direction. Where's previous resistance? Where's previous support?

When I first considered that we were likely going to reject the call trigger. It was another full hour before it made sense to enter the trade. I was reluctant to take calls given we'd already moved so far. We were nearing the call trigger and previous highs. We were distant from a swing low. Calls at Swing Lows!

I was equally reluctant to take puts because the 10m trend was so strong. The longer I waited however the more comfortable I felt with puts. We created a clear box of price and once we breached the low, it was justification to look at puts. Ideal entry was every scary rip up to clear resistance. Each attempt up there then sold off to close the candle below the 3m8e. Every rip from then was sold. I entered. And was not-confident enough to wait until my target. We moved 5 to 7 to 10 points. Especially given the precision of my entry, I've got the freedom to wait for my target.

Also! Today I learned that I can have a huge day with several trades. Not needing it in 1 trade. Several at bats. Smaller size. Wins add up.

This is it. From now on. Extra patience. ITM con. Enter 1, add or cut. NBD.