11.19

Yesterday was all about having a real thesis rooted in price action and structure. Everything compelling action. Bounce off support, with divergence, plus a break of TL resistance and understanding that price runs in waves up to its target and no pullback is reason to worry.

My job is to wait until that obvious setup shows up. Because it will. And, when it does I need to be thinking clearly and not bring scar tissue from sub-optimal trades.

I wait.

Structure is the direction, ATRs are the map.

I 'missed' the easy setup by being at a meeting. It was the same setup as yesterday. A big wick up to recapture the 21e with a meaningful TL resistance break. It's why price continues to rip. I cannot chase here no matter how high it goes. There is no setup. And, no real thesis behind how high it can continue. I will wait for consolidation and then continuation or if it does look like we're topping, start charting out where the likely higher low will be.

I didn't miss shit. Who knows if I actually would've taken it. And, the next trade will come too.

It was the second I oversized that I stopped thinking critically. And, then it was all about trying to avoid the loss that was coming by oversizing in the first place.

My thesis was down. Then I flipped it and acted. And then continued to act. But of course my original bear thesis played out and then some. Imagine if I waited in puts as long as I've waited for my calls to turn around. 6670 puts went 5x.

Literally every time I think I've figured it out. And coming off a great stretch. I just give it all back and then some and crush my confidence. This is infuriating.

Refusing to exit because so worried that once I do we're going to rip. That's all a product of over sizing. Normally just taking a loss is part of the game. I have to be good at taking a loss to be good at this business

Losses happen and therefore position size has to be kept in check so it's no big deal to take a loss.

What's super frustrating is my inability to take this type of size for trades with 3 month expiration and a longer term thesis. Meanwhile I'm taking this size with a 0dte and riding it to zero.

What's super interesting about my ability to wait right now is a focus on needing an outsized move. Therefore I'm stomaching the fluctuation. Or is it that I've completely accepted the loss? I don't think so, I think it's the hope that I've still got a chance. But I can't predict the market. All I can do is control what I do. It doesn't matter how good or not I get at understanding price and my system. Until I get with the program on sizing it just won't matter. Position size is all that matters.

And, of course averaging down was so dumb. We've moved 35 points since the bottom and my cons haven't moved. When have I ever been in for a 35 point move in my direction. Smarter more prudent thing to do. Size small, cut quick. Let the position run as long as stop hasn't hit.

I think this is it. Size small enough that I am willing to wait through the wiggles and as long as price doesn't break below my stop loss or entry - sizing small - will allow me to take the loss regardless.

Back to previous day close we go. Then we can run to where I think we will. And by then my cons will still be worth nothing. Since I oversized there's nothing I can do about it.

Down we go. Perfect rejection of the 10m21e. Creating a lower high. Aggressively roping in call buyers given how far removed we were from the previous swing high. We are however starting to eat into the 10m ribbon so now I will wait some more..

But likely just a retest of the 21e before tahnking. Vix is potentially vommy on the 10m? There's a vix gap at 23 or so.

Now the question is do I scale out on the way up? I do believe we're headed higher but that just doesn't matter. The markets going to market size appropriately. Part of me says take it off. The other part of me says fuck it, just let it run.

If I had just waited from the get go to just get in. Why, why, why am I unable to just be so patient.

Actually I was patient. I did wait for a solid signal to enter. The issue again was position size. I got married to the thesis and was unable to take the small loss %wise. Because the position size made it a large loss.

And here comes the tank.

Ugh.

Or we're just sideways and the range right now is large. So if we do lose this range LOD likely. If we breakout what's likely? 665 SPY/ right around PDH.

This is stupid. We're going to get to my price target and my cons will be the same price. What am I waiting for? This is how you lose the port. By getting in so big that there's no other way to cope. How how how do I keep letting this happen.

I think I got so enamored with my ability to read the PA. I completely forgot about position sizing. When that is all that matters.

Ugh I got sucked in. We finally ripped higher. Calm ensues. But on the 10m we still don't put in a HH.. just an EH. Or is this all because the volatility is so high. If I wasn't stuck in this position th ewild moves would be insanely profitable. Like I said I think even if we do get to my target. My cons will be worth nothing.

Where I'm willing to get out now is where I could've gotten out 2 hours ago. Would have been a 50% loss but my hope and desire for it to fully revert clouded my thinking. Now I'm sitting with a 90% loss...

Now the calculus is getting harder because every move is so drastic on the premium chart because of my size.

This range is exactly that. Another rip off support. Another chance for me to get excited as we approach resistance..

We finally have a scary and real double bottom on the premium chart with significant divergence. From the accumulation zone to the green zone.

Perhaps the fed minutes at 2p will be the catalyst that sends this? Or probably just more chop as everyone waits on NVDA earnings.

Delta is a shorthand for percentage likelihood. 6670calls are priced at 2.5. And deslta currently 15. So 15% chance we hit 6670... If that hits then I can get out breakeven. I don't know what I'm thinking. There's no way we get a 30 point move out of nowhere.

As I said we're ripping off support. Now that we're getting closer to resistance, I'm hoping, thinking this is the time we breakout. But, in likelihood it will continue to act as reisstance. Hourly is bearish. Daily we're below the 48e. 10m is sideways. But the 8e is holding. If we can close over the 48e then we may ivommy. more false hope.

WHat is my plan? When will I exit. Will I really wait until 6665ish or do I take some off sooner.

Back at resistance and rejecting. The atm call has been double from support to resistance in this range..

Lol resistance resisting. Or I'm not waiting long enough.

Well 1.5 minutes til some volatility? We're at resistance.. I'm hoping for a breakout. But, factually we are at resistance with no direction. Every 20 cent move on the premium is a lot..

Logic says down big. Hope says up. Sideways?

Logic wins. Now will support hold? Probs not.. Gross perfect 3m evening star reversal off the prior resistance. Tons of volume, resistance still holding. Tank is on. bullish close on the high volume 3m potentially? Nope. bearish but a hold of the 21e. EMAs don't matter though- we're sideways. There's no direction. I thought I was on the 1m. Crazy volume on the 1m with a push off resistance, but the 1m21e held? We have to rip here or else I really do have to exit. Theta make my shit worthless.

On the 10m it's clear as day. We just cannot break the previous swing high. Tank city is on. Ugh. The position is now almost 100% down. We're back to recouping the amount in total of my last add..

I can't believe I've been sitting here for this. I easily couldn't walked away.

I will have left in my account only the profit from the last two weeks.

So I guess I'm okay with this trade going to zero. Wow. If I hadn't added the last bit I'd still be better off.

If we do hit my price... Ugh. We tank I'm pissed. We get to my target I'm pissed that my cons didn't pay. I think we're going to tank.

The dumbest thing of it all.

My original thesis this morning was bearish. Because we ran so far. I got into calls on a hold of the 3m21e. The loss off it was the signal for puts.

We lost the 3m21e and the 10m started eating into the ribbon.

At this point now I want support to break or resistance to break. Hard to leave now in case something happens. But again even if I want to happen happens. I don't think it's very meaningful. I'm simply moving the field goals on what I think is acceptable in terms of a dollar value loss.

We've been in the scalp trigger box since 1p. Actually, not even the box. Between the close and the call trigger. A 10ish point range..

I've convinced myself to take the position off in pieces slowly. While at the same time worrying that we're going to rip face all the way back to my breakeven.

Swing low and swing high divergence requires actual pivots that are LL or HH not just taps. I know this. And divergence is best when it's coming from extreme levels.

Of course we're flat today. Everyone is holding their breath for NVDA earnings.

I'm very much wrong now but is it even worth it to bail right here? So stupid. Timber. Or we're at support and so I think we're going to break down. Just like when we're at resistance I think we're going to break out. But that's just not the case. We bounce at support and dump off resistance. Here we are bouncing just after I said Timber. In reality we're just stuck in range and I'm not just hoping we break in my direction but again I don't even now what that accomplishes.

Of course now I'm telling myself that in the opening hour we moved enough to get me to my target. So in the last hour there's a chance. There's not. I'm basically holding out for hte most improbable move ever and even if it comes I'll exit early because of course I will. I'm prudent after oversizing. I need to be prudent before sizing.

Size, size, size. Oh my. I can't believe I've been glued to the screen since 10am watching candles.. 80 cents is really all i can get now. lol an 8x from here. Which would also double my port relative to what it'll be at if this goes to zero. So from that perspective. Pretty sweet. Would I go 100% in on a position tomorrow and hold out for an 8x? Nope.

And do the fucking process. I hourly time frame from a price structure standpoint was down. The ribbon pivot flipping gave me the false belief. Early in a pivot flip is lots of volatility to shake everyone out before we officially transition.

Ok we broke the range. Now I can't even get out of my position. I don't even know if it's worth saving anyway. Objectively yes, but on a total position stanpoint it's like what am I doing.

Meanwhjile what I'm not willing to exit at is an amount that's what I feel good about making in a day. Jus tsilly. The spreads to big with something this dumb. Now I want to not exit because it's so little anyway that if it were to rip I'd feel dumb. But pbjectively again even if it rips it's meaningless. I actually can't believe how many sells are in front of me. That many are just willing to take their penines. The only reason we're going up on the premium chart is Vix. Not because of the actual price ripping. Lol we are ripping and even then I can't exit because it coincides with vix dumping.

At this point I want to exit just so I can move on to learning and rehashing what I did and helping myslef feel better for tomorrow.

We broke the range down. Why am I thinking we could rip here? I just need to get out. So I can move on. But again my concern is exiting just before we rip. But I know from a price standpoing we're not likely to rip.

So yes clear hindsight. But, if I had done my process...

Daily - Bullish except we just spent two days below the 48e, so a vommy in the works. Before vommys vommy they rypically retest. And that's exactly what we did. An insane rip to cause fomo amongst retail like me to chase calls. The 21e pivot had also turned red. Which now we now on any time frame where the higher time frame has a clear set up when the pivot is lost and flips that is the most likely scenario to continue.

On the 4h we were very clearly in a down trend. Yes we had multiple PO dots but that's only commensurate with a move back to the pivot and the 5a closed with a rejection of the 8e - which the 8e had previous rejected.

Okay so daily potentially vommy. 4h very much down with the most recent candle closing below the 8e. PO dots signaling a move to the 21e is likely but doesn't not mean more.

Hourly.. Squeeze. Skinnying ribbon. Yesterday during RTH we created a pivot high around 665 which was unable to break previous pivot highs. Starting at 5a the pivot began to flip. The 9a hourly candle. Massive dip and rip. And, a close above the pivot high. BUT, still in a FVG.. from Monday's extreme sell off. That's what we did we ripped to Monday's FVG and then tanked.. It also coincided perfectly with the MD put trigger.

Perfectly tapped the midpoint of Mondays Houlry FVG. While yes the 9a candle closed above the previous pivot high.. that is still not the place to enter calls. From a structural standpoint calls could only be considered at a structural low. This is why the process is so important. D and 4h context. Then trade the hourly chart. That gets me in the structural frame of mind. 659 is support 665 is resistance. Then the 10a hourly candle.. We didn't hold the 48e. And closed back below the pivot.

So mindset potentially would've been - okay we're maybe going to full on vommy, but the right entry is on a hold of the 48e or previous swing low. Not just because it's the swing low, but because price tends to almost come back to to trap non believers.

Now the 10m. Clear plan. Call trigger break and long. By the time I got to my computer we'd already breached the day 618. So at that point - again structurally - the swing low was off the open. We'd want a 70% retrace of that. At minimum a deep move into the ribbon to consider calls. Then at 10:20 we get our first red candle. 10:30 was another red candle but the 10m8e held.

But of course I got in after just the 10:20 10m candle because the 3m8e was holding. Well if my thesis was a hold of the 3m8e and a likely move back up to HOD so just 12 points. Well then, I need to use the 3m8e as my SL. Which I then shifted down to the 3m21e - Because I oversized.

Then as the 3m21e held I added size so as to quicken my time to exit. Oh I'll just exit way before we get to HOD. But in reality we never came close. I was predicting a double top with divergence and rather than wait long enough to take puts off the potential double tap, I decided to take calls back up to the double top. While a double top could've happened, it wasn't likely given how extended we were from the 10m ribbon and how extreme the PO reading was. On the 3m we were at extreme, extreme PO level. That's actually more indicative of downside. Actually it means more upside is less likely, therefore do not enter calls until the 3m21e. Wait for the 3m21e at least. And then wait for several candles at the 3m21e.

The 3m21e was lost. Then 10:40a candle eventually closed in the ribbon with high momentum. Entering puts with the pivoting 21e as the stop loss was the play.

I took calls at the 3m8e stupidly. Adding at the 3m21e wasn't terrible though there was no TL support or TL resistance break.

Required to take calls. TL support or TL resistance break + many candle to create a swing low that is relatively close to the previous swing low. This is only after identifying a clear setup on the 10m with a clear understanding of what would signal a stop or take profit.

Required to take puts. TL resistance or TL support break + many candles to create a swing high that is relatively close to the previous swing high.

What is the HTF context? What is the setup? Where are swing pivots? Where are TL support and TL resistance? It can be that simple, but requires actually doing the process. Exhibiting the patience to wait for a real setup. And, a willingness and ability to take the loss. I refuse to take losses not because I'm unwilling to lose, but because I've sized so great that I can't lose. I have to size so that I can lose. I lost a ton today. If I was willing to take that loss why not take a tinier position and let it run to zero? Or how am I willing to make that much os a 0dte position when I won't even do that with a 90dte..

I need to quit identifying support zoomed in. I've got to zoom out and identify actual swing support or resistance.

The afternoon LOD was the actual swing low. Not the intermediate support I was identifying. I've got to focus on not just the PA on an individual candle basis but as a grouping.

Side not we're ripping face and I still can't exit my original cons at the ask... No buyers because it's a waste of money. Lol there we go a 20 point move. Able to sell! lol. I honestly still think we're headed to 6665.. and part of me wants to buy some 6650s just to see. At this point the loss is so huge.. 6650s were at 2 now 3.3 and looks like will continue to rip. Do I just trade EOD with $500 budget a day? Money will last..

Now $5. Just hit $7 back at the earlier range resistance. Of course now I'm thinking this time surely we'll rip through. Maybe, maybe not. It doesn't matter because I don't have a position. And, there we go.. we did in fact finally rip through reistance, and it was only after coming very close to the LOD. Okay... I'm all out.

the 6650s now $14

My original cons trading at 2x what I sold..

Instead of the last average down of the shitty cons. Save the cash and wait for the next trade. I got the next one right.

The 6650s. If I felt that confident in them. Why not instead buy 90dte with a long term thesis. They went from $4 to $4.5 - 10% on a huge position (which is easier to take because of the 90dte is a pretty amazing tradeoff.

Maybe that's the play. Oversize in really long dated options? Ugh how many times am I going to learn this lesson.

Even now I still feel really confident in us moving to 6665 by close. Do I go balls deep in spy calls? No, because earnings after the close. Entry on 60dte around $4.4 x 250? I'm focused on it as if it's a day trade but the whole point is I have a longer term thesis on it and it's not actually invalidated until the 6600 is lost on a daily closing basis. So who cares what it does in the meantime. I either stop out below 6600 or exit at levels.

This is how I should be day trading. Where's my stop out? Where's my target? Do nothing until either hits. Size small enough that you're comfortable doing nothing until either hits.

Not about predicting. It's about analysing.

IF I'm thinking up. Well where's previous swing low? Are we close to it? If not wait. Is there TL support. zoom out. Is there a TL resistance that just broke. I just said oh take long dated calls, because I feel like we're headed to 6665. Doesn't matter what I feel. It matters whether I've identified the right area to get in if there's actually a thesis for up.

Need a thesis AND entry requirements. Not one or the other. It's both.

That's why yesterdays trade was so easy. I had a setup and I was clear about price structure.

Though previous resistance is now holding as support.... Though we may consolidate for a while and wait for the emas to catch up. We do have a PO dot so while we may still run, it doesn't comply with my entry requirements. Since the PO fired I must wait for the 21e to be tested.

Entry requirements:

Zoomed out absolute swing low

TL support?

TL resistance break?

No PO dot from +100 extreme. If yes whatever time frame I'm on requires a 3x+ candle hold of the 21e. If it doesn't hold then consider counter with the 3m21e as stop.

There it is 6663 hit - scalp 618 - which is what I was anticipating the whole time. 60dte SPYs hit 4.74, so almost 10%.

Okay so what am I actually going to do differently? Another amazing run sabotaged by sneakily increasing position size and an unwillingness to complete the process.

1. Analysis Checklist

   1. Trading the hourly chart

2. 10m Plan

   1. Manual Structure

3. Entry Requirements

   1. Close to recent swing pivots

   2. TL holds / breaks

   3. Clear stop out

4. SIZE. SIZE. SIZE.

   1. Actually take the loss

Okay. Here's the challenge. Can I do the checklist, create a plan, and wait to enter for 5 days straight? That's it.

Must must must wait until candles close.