11.18

What did I do yesterday? As typical I didn't take the first trade and so was over eager to take the second. Despite having a clear indication of my stop, instead of taking it, I averaged down. I averaged down so much that I was content to get out breakeven. When in reality if I had just waited to enter where I exited $4, the cons ripped to $14 and then peaked at $60, finally closing at $30.

I have the right read. I continue to fail at being patient and purpose. I'm often right in terms of destination, but lack the stomach to handle the wiggles. More time and or less size could solve. So, I will do that. Less size, more purpose.

I'm 'right' in terms of destination when I properly go through the process, especially on the 10m - where are the swing pivots? Where are the TLs? Enter on one side, exit at the other, re-enter if it breaks.

When I size, especially oversize, I focus more on my PL and less on the actual price action. Each candle with 0dte can drive such a massive gain, and conversely each pullback can completely erase a gain that it's hard to stay in a trade. However, if I size small it's far easier to stomach the pullbacks and only exit once the price action dictates.

So right now I'm annoyed I didn't take the trade. Because it turned out to be 'right' But rather than concerning myself wtih missing it, instead I should focus on why I hesitated? Perhaps it was right to hesitate because I'd be entering so far from my stop loss.

Frankly, I'm never going to miss a trade. Rather I'll be too early. Get exhausted and then miss the obvious trade. I have a good handle on where price is going, but less of a handle on what constitues a system entry or not. When in doubt, stay out.

Wow what a trade. Clear thought. A real understand of my setup. A real understanding of why I was getting in. A real understanding of why I was justified in going counter. And, what is more likely to happen or not. It's why despite size I was able to hold until my take profits. I then exited a bit to early on the runners, but still the bulk of the trade I was able to hold by focusing on the PA. Price can absolutely continue to rip face but I already grabbed 30 points, with size.

Picture perfect trade. If I can just wait patiently for a setup like that... and start to size and feel confident holding. The entry allowed me to be comfortable with a small loss or huge gain. I wasn't even scared of pullbacks because worst case I just take a small loss and then wait for the next time the setup shows up. That was the 'easiest' big money trade I've had in maybe ever.

Hourly extended. Price broke down but then wicked back up putting in a bullish engulfing and creating a double - W bottom with divergence. We broke the trendline on the 3m which gave me the justification to enter late. For calls it's either enter at support which I missed, or wait for TL resistance to break. Once the 3m21e broke, it then served as support 2x. More than enough justification to get in and expect a move up to previous resistance. That's exactly where we got. The move further up to the 10m48e was bonus and in hindsight I do wish I waited for that next level, but I wanted to protect my massive gain, especially given the stupidity of yesterday.

What a great trade - not because of the outcome. But because of the thought process. I was so crystalized in why I was taking the trade that I was able to size and hold the size instead of being spastic with entering and exit just to clip some money.

It's not about clipping money, it's about having a setup, letting it play out one way or the other. Exiting when I'm supposed to. The rest will take care of itself.

Yesterday's stupidity.. Insane size because I kept averaging down. Basically broke even on the trade but because size was so large, we move the port 2%. Then, despite learning my lesson, I did it again, this time taking a huge loss on a trade - I was just completely wrong. Killed performance in one trade. 3rd trade worked out and was confident but because my nerves were fried I got in late, exited early and then not enough. If I had just taken everything off, far more impactful. This is all in contrast to today.

When I've sized 15%+ in the past the port has moved 1-3% primarily because I'm putting that size just to get out of a scalp quickly. This time however, 15% size and impacted the portfolio 8%. That is massive. Size to impact ratio. That's what I want to max. In other words I want to max out trade return and do it more frequently with less size.

I also didn't waste a bunch of money on fees by trading ridiculous size... Yesterday I spent $400+ to lose 10% of the port. Today just $24 to get almost erase yesterday's stupidity.

I will wait for 10m swing pivots and TL holds or breaks. It can be that simple!

Swing Pivots -- Structure -- TLs connect the pivots.

All about price structure

Up? Swing Low or a 70% retrace from the current Swing High. TL/ support or \TL break, retest

Down? Swing High or 70% retrace from current Swing Low. TL\ resistance or /TL break, retest

+12% on the port without taking stupid risk. It was pretty effortless by focusing on structure and simply waiting for price to signal a direction. Not getting caught up in the chop and assuming. First trade was really the epic setup.

10m W bottom with a deep push lower on the second bottom only to be wicked up with divergence. Then when the TL and 3m21e broke it was easy to use the low of candle that broke the 21e as SL slash the 3m21e as a stop loss. We ripped to 3m48e, then 10m21e, then 10m48e. Insane trade.