11.12

Been a minute because I've been so busy with Hutch. Having said that, I have traded a little despite not going through my process. That works until it doesn't. And, sizing was a real issue.

I'm committed to my process. Trading slowly, calmly and frankly with the goal of not trading at all is the only way to see things clearly and succeed long term.

Daily

Daily bias is up. We hammered off the previous quarter close and D48. That Friday or even Monday am was the ideal time to enter call swings. The Jan SPY 700c (Quarterly 618) dipped down to $5 and now sitting near $11. We've created a significant bull gap Tuesday am that has yet to be tested.

We're coming up to previous supply zone at 6900. If that clears the GG takes us up to 7035 by EOY. As always the question is what support is ideal to enter. We 'missed' the ideal entry but now that we have confirmation there will be additional opportunities to enter.

4hour

SPX 4h is slowing near the previous month close which also aligns closely with the supply zone from last week. We are still bullish but potentially need to retest the monthly put trigger and bull gap before moving a higher. We're either going to consolidate here and revert over time or dip creating a clear swing low before continuing.

SPY 4h is more firmly bullish. Yesterday we flagged into the ribbon and launched. Since we're seeing the ribbon expand, but we are currently at a major level from the last two weeks. We're currently in the distribution zone so while we may continue up on LTFs, we should expect sideways or down.

Hourly

Bullish. Hourly 21e continues to be an inflection point. We're currently slowing near previous weeks high and the MD 786 level. The probabilities are high that we reach +1 by EOW - 688. Starting to squeeze now. An ideal entry would be to wait for price to react to the 786 level around 684, maybe 683.

SPX MD 786 is serving as resistance now. We've successfully cleared the 618 with a bullish ribbon. 618 is first support, beneath is the 500 level. Those are both areas to consider calls for 7d swings. We are starting to create some divergence. If yesterday pm becomes a high it will do so with lower PO. That means a move to the 21e - currently at the 500 - is more likely. Though we can also revert through time instead of price. We are in the distro zone, patience is key.

Hourly is bullish!

10m

We're in range from the 382 down to the PDH. Ribbon is tightening though bias is still very much bullish. Can scalp inside the range or wait for a clean break. Swing Low is closer to the H21 at 684, the 70% retracement would be around 684.5. Let's way for price to react tehre and become obvious!

If the ribbon continues to hold we will likely retest PWH/382. If the 382 gets tapped then the 500 and then 618 are next up. If we lose 684.5 and reject a retest of the call trigger then PDC is next down. 6875c is 382. 6845p is PDC - 6860 the mid point.

Ugh I've not been great at waiting or sizing. Come on man.

Have a bias. Be confident in the bias. Execute at support or resistance. Just. Do. It.

I hesitated so hard. Missed it. Then took a suboptimal trade.

3m200e and scalp put was holding. We had a morning star reversal with the bodies then acting as support right at the scalp put trigger. 6850s were around $3 there. Then once the 3m21e broke contracts were ranging from $3 to $4.5. Then after the 3m48e broke... We still had opportunities to get in around $3.5 to $4. Only for price to rip up to previous resistance and scalp close with contracts hitting $10. There was no reason to hesitate. I was so worried we were going to go down - which ultimately we might have. But, I had so much confirmation to get long. And, more importantly, very clear level at which I'd be wrong. It was just a matter of trusting the analysis and executing.

It tends to be the ribbon that scares me. The first time we hit I think it's going to be a reversal. The second time, even though I have divergence with a swing low 30 minutes later, I'm scared again of the ribbon. But, this time I have the setup. W with divergence.

Ultimately on the 3m it needs to be a W with swing lows about 30 minutes apart. I think I've been burned so many times seeing divergence with lower lows, but it really requires lower swing lows. It's the price structure and pivots that matter. Potentially turn ribbon off....?!

Also, size smaller..