10.30

When I think about yesterday... It's interesting/frustrating/noteworthy that my initial trade with really small size, I was unwilling to take a small move against me and therefore cut the position (only for it to rip in my original direction). Then later when I put more size, I was willing to stomach drawdowns and even average down -- totally accepting the loss? but maybe also that much more confident.

I think maybe it had more to do with the confidence in the edge than it did the fact I was deep red and just owned it.

I was ultimately right but didn't have conviction in it. Hence the smaller size. I went bigger the second trade because it was clearer (though it was an absolute shit entry) and it was a matter of waiting for profit.

Did I genuinely have more conviction? Did I have more conviction because I truly accepted the loss and therefore was able to see things more clearly? How do I harness the clarity and conviction of the second trade, but the first time around. And, with appropriate size.

I was clearly willing to lose more given I sized so I bailed on the first trade because lack of conviction.

I have to wait until I'm convinced. Convinced means I've seen it before. Price has moved in a way that signals a later move with higher conviction. I don't need to whole move. I just need the right entry. The right strike selection. The capture of profit.

Yesterday's dichotomy had more to do with conviction than accepting the loss. And/or they're hand in hand. I'm more willing to accept the loss if it's a high conviction play. But, to see price clearly, and have that conviction, I need to accept the loss.

It should be easy to accept the loss given I'm trading with a small amount of capital relative to my needs. It's okay if it goes. It's okay because I've done it before and I'm still here. It's going to be just fine. So the flip side may be what am I scared of if I were to succeed? I've succeeded plenty before, so? Maybe I'm worried nothing will change if I do succeed. And, that's frankly correct. Whether I figure this out or not. It's all good. So just do it?

Daily

Still bullish. Quarterly call and D8 aligning as first leg of support. Also aligns with the bull gap from Monday am. 6850-6825 an important support range.

4hour

Could use a higher low from a structural standpoint on the 4h. Yesterday the ribbon held as support. Currently holding but still 3 hours in the candle so nothing to glean. We are in the distro zone and trending downward. The Monthly 618 was pretty clear resistance on both charts yesterday, with a squeeze brewing on the SPY chart at the 21e. The 4h21e on SPY was acting as support and was lost this morning. Look to 21e to act as support.

I'm trying to do the checklist but have also convinced myself we're going down and urging to just get in. BUT, if down where is resistance? It's higher. And, I should wait for there, even if it means I miss the trade. Because after this will be another system trade. Plus do the checklist. $10 to $13..

Hourly

Spy ribbon is bearish. Ribbon / EMAs are a shortcut for structure not levels. The MD 382 holding as support and the 500 as resistance. Put entries would need to be closer to resistance. It could totally tank without me. But I will wait for my process and the 10m to get to resistance. This is definitely not the right place to enter.

Hourly is in a squeeze with downward PO on SPY and SPX. On SPX we've lost the 21e which was previous support. Potentially not resistance with a move down to the MD call trigger. If 21e is recaptured then a move up to 6900 is likely. SPX ribbon bullish but potentially transitioning now.

If I were to trade the hourly.. I'd consider calls in the gap or puts near the 618.

10m

Trend is very much down on SPY and SPX. The put trigger is final resistance. Now seems as if the ribbon is. The 786 was tapped so -1 ATR is likely. 6825..

6830P skinny ribbon. PDL holding as support. Bias is down. Where is resistance? Way higher. I'm feeling fomo now and want to get in while also knowing that if we get back to actual resistance I'll then assume we're headed up. Instead I will trust the analysis of DOWN. And, wait or miss to enter at resistance. LOD would be TP.

Of course now that we're heading down the fomo is hitting bigly. If it does go I'll wish I got in. If it reverses I'll think well that's the signal to get long.

But I have to think in brackets not making money. My goal is not to profit. My goal is a stress free trade. That either goes in the probable direction or not.

And wow thankfully I didn't chase we just ripped. Let's actually wait to see how price reacts at previously confirmed resistance - put trigger and 10m21e. Then wait for an actual 3m reversal pattern in those areas. M or bearish engulfing.

Though now I'm wondering about an IHS. The reason I didn't enter it because we were at support and making a swing low. I enter puts at a swing high and resistance.

If I got in now I'd have to cut above the -382 / 3m48e / 10m21e. That is too far and therefore I will not enter yet.

Very interesting. My most fomo feeling was the perfect call entry. Meanwhile now I'm feeling pissed/fomo I didn't take calls there.

We're now at the higher end of resistance from earlier / right near the put trigger. And, I said as much. That once price got here I'd feel like I was wrong and the move is up. The difference being though that we're actually in a squeeze this time. And have broken the resistance trendline. And, here's the W with divergence I spotted on the calls but didn't take. Calls at 2.5 to 6 right now.

Now I'm late to calls, I def think I'm going to miss it. I get in anyway. And here is the absolute perfect entry for puts. Switched bias but exited early.

Just came down to patience. I knew exactly where resistance was. I knew exactly where support was. It was a matter of waiting for price to get to resistance. And properly reject on the 3m. As soon as the 3m21e was lost. I could've entered for 12 points.

The 10m didn't justify calls. Wait wait wait for the 10m. Bearish all day. Just a matter of waiting for the 3m21e to get lost after forming a swing high in resistance.

If down (BASED ON 10m!), where's resistance. Swing high in resistance early entry. Loss of 3m21e added conviction. Then exit next level / 10 points down .

I feel extra silly because if I just completely exited after the 15 points move on the first trade I'd be far better off than I am now. I'm constantly wanting a multilevel move to happen, so allows me to get in late but then still hold for glory. Silly. Get in early. Exit early.

The 10m ran into previous resistance and put in a bearish engulfing! Easy!

Okay. So how do I actually course correct. I knew where resistance was. I knew where support was. I waited for resistance, hesitated, entered and didn't fully exit at support. Then when we revisited resistance I chased calls for a move higher. Only for it to then become painfully obvious we were headed down. Oversized and then didn't wait for support to exit because I was so content making up for the stupid calls I bought. All the while barely green and lots of fees and angst.

My analysis was great to find the bias. Then I need to identify previous 10m support / previous resistance and just be content waiting for price to get to those levels. Then look at the 3m structure. Quit assuming. Stick to the bias. Where is 10m sup? res? If down wait for resistance to confirm. Then wait for a clear signal on the 10m. Also wait for a swing high on the 3m.

It's all about being content waiting. I don't need to catch every move. I do need to wait for my analysis to play out. Even missing it is okay. What's not okay is not entering at predetermined support and resistance.

Instead of if down, where's resistance? It's where's resistance (ATR/EMA)? Are we close to it? Is bias down? Are we creating a 3m swing high? Do it break down? Enter early, then add with loss of 3m21e.

Interestingly enough if I applied the same rigor on multiple names I could just monitor if/when price gets to 10m previous SR on multiple names and act if and only if there's something obvious.

My issue is the lack of patience for price to get to where I've established is the right place -- then worse flipping my bias based on the lower time frames.

Let's see.

Okay. I did it.

I established the very clear resistance. Descending trend line / the 10m48e. 30 minutes of an inability to break above. HTF bias is down. 3m is creating and at the previous swing high. Easy entrance for puts down to previous support. I took the trade because I was very close to where I'd want to exit. I took the trade because I felt good confidence in it. I also took the trade because it was only 1 contract. I exited at exactly where I was supposed to. Previous support. A very easy 70%. Amazing, effortless, easy trade.

Where I went wrong after that... I was annoyed I only took 1 con and convinced myself this was the time we were going to break and so added further OTM cons. Good for OTM. Bad for meetin my entry requirements. I took on a lot of risk and stress only to minimally profit more than the previous trade.

If I catch myself thinking oh it's going to break... at that point I should only be in runners, not initiating a trade!

Way too many trades today. But came away with a proper addition in the checklist. Basically, I'm doing the pre-analysis. Then it all goes out the window because I'm replacing it with real time / shorter timeframe analysis. Instead I don't need to turn that part of my brain on until price is actually in an area that was predetermined to be relevant based on the higher time frame analysis.

Today. Given I truly traded the 10m chart. 1dte may not be a terrible idea.. Waiting for 10m resistance or support and simply not exiting until the opposite.