10.27 PM

Checklist. Size. Checklist. Size. Checklist. Size. Checklist. Size. Checklist. Size. Checklist. Size.

Daily - Bullish

Since Thursday am.. A massive gap up Friday, followed by another gap up today. We are now pretty extended from the Daily ribbons while also having passed the quarterly call trigger on both SPX and SPY. Next level up is the quarterly 382 at 6903 on SPX. Today we may start extending the expanding the squeeze. We're also starting to approach the distribution zone but with a major squeeze running up into it. Bottom line is everything is bullish, while also being far too extended to enter anything to hold.

4h - Bullish

Ribbon is widening. Friday we opened above the monthly call trigger and held. Today we've opened above the 382, with the 500 just above. GG tapped and more likely to hit the 618 by end of month which is at 6905. However, entries are no advised here given how extended we are from the ribbon. SPY is showing the same thing with PO reaching the extreme zone. Again validating that it's not a great R/R to entering swings from here.

Hourly - Bullish

H13 on SPY acting as support with the 382 being tapped on the weekly level. Odds are of hitting 687 spy by end of week. SPX has also breached the 382 with the 618 likely by end of week - 6891. However, on SPX we are extended and needing a reversion through time or price-- especially given we're at extreme levels on PO. Generally speaking the call trigger and ribbon are support and good spots to enter calls. Previous week close before that is a proper support level as well. Given the gap ups and that we're at ATHs there are yet to be supply zones... If I were to trade the hourly chart with 7dte.. calls only and waiting until we're back in the ribbon / near the call trigger / holding the H21.

10m - Bullish

Trending. Spent 2 hours this morning chopping around the 786 and finally deferred to the HTF bias and starting to make a move up to +1. It's very likely to hit +1 but may be a slow move given how extended we are on HTFs. Previous support is around the 3m48e, but demand / key psych at 6850.

Morning star reversal off the 10m21e. 8e held. Next 10m 8e continued to hold. 1:50p 10m candle bouncing off previous candle low but finding resistance at previous candle high. Hit the +1 on SPX, room on SPY. But especially given the low upside reward, entries MUST be deep in the ribbon.

A 10m loss of the 21e would be the stop out. So, that is also where we'd like to enter.

The 35 delta call ribbon is shrinking. We tried to ivom but pulling back to the ribbon with the 3m21e shifting green and holding.

1:50p inside candle, hanging man? Waiting for price to get to support anyway.

52 delta

3 @4.3

2:08 at 6861

Stop at close below 3m21e.

Scalp call of 6871 or Day +1 684.35 is TP

Not creating a 3m swing low though. Screw EMAs, let's exit. Or, size is small, probabilities in my favor. Let it play out. I can be wrong and still make money in the long run because my position size can handle the loss. Not crazy obvious on the 10m. I think I'm in because fomo. Not because it's super obvious (like a scary dip into the ribbon and wick up).

Exit 3 @ 4.3

2:17 at 6861.6

Visual plan is to wait for a move into the 10m ribbon. So, I wait.

While we are trending, it has more to do with the gap up than anything else. We're in an 18 point range for SPX. Tiny, tiny range. And again +1 just above on SPX. Dip close to the 3m21e was bought right up and 3m8e again the support. 10m though. 10m is just 4 dojis all holding the 10m8e.

Best to wait for obvious. Hindsight obviousness was 4 holds of the 10m8e. Cons went from entry of $4.3 to a low of 3.7, hitting 5.4.. so not the most painful miss anyway. Almost an hourlong hold to achieve that. Focusing on the underlying PA only was the only justification need to stay in. I said stop was a loss of the 3m21e. We didn't even cross it before heading higher.

10m was strong. Probability up. two scary dips to the 3m21e both wick off. That was the entry. Actually had another chance to get in at $4.3 on the 'scary' dip to the 3m21e. Exit at 6.1 at first TP of 6865 SOX and just short of +1 on SPY. +40%. But, all good because lower conviction given the R/R. I'll wait for the fat pitch.

Alright previous support and the 3m21e continued to hold. I entered with a stop loss of the 3m21e. And an initial take profit of 6865 and then 6870.

3 @ 4.8 at 3:23p at 6863

Drawdown to 4.5

Out 2 @ 5.7 at 3:30p at 6865 as planned.

Out the last at 6.8 at 3:33p at 6866

Of course at 3:37 we ripped to 6870 and hit $10.

Green is green though. I return of 25% instead of 46%. Small size anyway. Great 1 trade. I need more smaller trades. I keep trying to hit my daily goal in 1 trade. Rather I need to defer to the PA.

Update. I needed to zoom out on the 10m. I had the bias completely correct. It was a matter of deferring to the bias and entering at support. I originally did just after 2p around 6861. We never breached that level. I talked myself out of holding and instead entered again at 4.8. Then because of the tight range I simply took profit when previous resistance came. As planned. It was frustrating to then not wait for 6870 which was the planned exit.

I interrupt the plan because I'm so concerned with not taking profits, or worse not taking unrealized profit and having it go red or break even. But, here I am annoyed I didn't just let the plan fully play out. At 3:57p we ripped 6877 and the contracts traded at $17. I exited at $7. It's not that I'm unhappy with the profit, it's that I'm unhappy I didn't fully submit to the plan.

While in the trade I was so scared of "losing" profit that I exited early. Then I missed the big move and ultimately lost even more potential profit. The moral is not to guess when to take profit and when not to. The moral is to defer to the plan. The scalp call trigger was the planned exit for a reason. It's the probabilities and point of the ATR levels. It's like I have the map but am unsure it's accurate, despite having drove the route over and over.

Confidence is not about knowing the system, it's about knowing the system will play out in profit if it's followed. Level to level.