10.22 PM

Long hiatus because of my other job. Back to what drives me.

Daily

Everything is still very bullish. However, yesterday and Monday we failed to break out of the extreme supply zone created last Friday. We retraced almost the whole move and as of 2:45p we're putting in an evening star reversal on the daily. But, that could easily be a restest of the daily 21 before continuation. There's no reason to predict, we'll just wait for price to determine the probabilities. Looks actually as if we're simply closing the bull gap created at the open on Monday.

From a quarterly ATR and ribbon perspective we've yet to break previous quarter close or the 48e, so the bias is bullish until then.

4h

Bullish as well but the previous month close still acting as support. We're currently support turned resistance, now testing as support -- from an M with divergence. Even if the 48e were to break, puts get entered at resistance -- so near the supply zone OR after a clean break of the previous month close. Structurally we do need to a create a higher low before continuing. We're quite far from the previous swing low. Maybe a retest of the monthly put trigger?

Hourly

Very much bearish. Though we've found support at the previous week close. Which is also just slightly below where we rested before exploding out of the gates Monday am. And, we're extended from the hourly ribbon. The GG is still open on the MD chart. A move down to the put trigger and further would make sense from a structural perspective, but entry would need to be in the ribbon or rejecting previous week high/MD 382. We have found clear support at 664 SPY. SPX is confirming that we've found support. A move into the ribbon before continuing down or reversing would be required. Or, a W with divergence at the previous week close. 6650Ps are $42. I'd wait until a move up to 668 to consider them. Which would be around $30. Having said that, the higher time frame biases are bullish. 6750Cs are $25 and I'd wait for price to retest 664 before entering.

10m

Trending. Down. We made a LL with equal PO signaling a move to the 21e. We've spent about 45 minutes trying to break above the 21e with no success. It's also the 618. The higher probability move is more downside given the reversal isn't really confirmed until the 48e breaks. However on the hourly we're still extended from the ribbon. 6680 is next ATR down. We're about 8 points from that so plenty of movement to justify entry. If the 10m 21e holds as resistance, that is the justification for puts.

From the 10m21e / 618 the 6680Ps ripped from 4.5 to 8.5, BUT the 3m21e continued to hold. So while it may feel like I was 'right' and missed it, we weren't at obvious yet. All good. On the 10m I like for 3+ candles to confirm a theses.

We've convincingly crossed the 10m21e. And so now a move up to the 48e is next up. 6700c. Premium chart has a skinnying ribbon, 3m21e flip green and plenty of divergence, and a squeeze. $1 to $1.5 stop loss. Target of $6 and then $9. Prefer to wait for my entry closer to $2 if not all the way down at $1. However, we are very close to the supply zone created from the dramatic drop at 1230p. The bias is down. I will stay with the probabilities vs 'predicting' continuation. But the 10m21e continues to hold. The 618 continues to hold. Time will tell.

Not creating a 3m swing low so not best for calls. May miss but let's see a deeper dip. Or scale in. Given the first exit would be near $6 scaling in at $3 doesn't require a huge move to bank.

4 @ $3. 6706 is scalp call if we're able to break above 6975. 2 off at 6700, 1 at 6705. Stop is a 10m loss of the 21e and 618 level. Smaller size allows for 10m wide stop. Can always exit and re-enter if 3m closes

At this point I wouldn't be surprised if we rip to the 48e or tank given the HTF bias. But I've managed my risk through position size. 3m8e continues to hold. Tempted to add more.

2 @ $2.5

Moving stop up to a 3m close below the spy -618, instead of exiting prematurely at $4. Though a $4 exit would be a 40% return.. Stop exit of 4 @ $5. HIT!

1 @ $6

Runner off at 6705 or a loss of the 3m 8.

4 @ $3 exited at $5 +800 +66%

1 @ $2.5 exited at $6 +350 + 140%

1 @ 2.5 exited at $2.5 +0 +0%

Instead of adding 2 @ 2.5 and then exiting at 5.. I could've held the original 4 and waited unutil my original TP of $6. Same PL but less at risk.

6705 just hit but I hesitated on the exit at $7.5 willing it to go higher. My stop loss is a loss of the 3m8e so I can wait, but I also should've just exited, instead of holding out for 6706.7 aka the scalp call trigger.

We did exactly what I suggested. A move up to the 48e. Anything more than that is gravy, but I didn't exit there like I planned for the bulk of the position nor the runner. We're at the MD call trigger and hourly 8e now. It makes sense to rest here if not all out 'reverse'. I " reverse because it's just a downward continuation from a deeper pullback up. So, actually it's continuation.

Here we are at the 3m8e and my premium entry. I exit at $2.5 despite having $7.5 at my target.

Still a great trade. $1700 at risk, returning 67% or $1,150. Yes it could've, would've, should've been +97% and +$1650 but it was a calm trade.

$1150 on 1 trade. a 67% return. Ideal.

Constantly coming back to my checklist and ensuring I took all the steps helped me stay with the probabilities and my system rather than what I 'thought' may happen. Knowing where I would stop out. Knowing I scaled in and the loss would be minimal and I could get back. All of these steps were critical in having a calm trade. I still struggle with wanting to get the most out of the trade. But, instead I simply need to exit at the predetermined levels and take my fears and desires out of it.

Make a plan. Trade the plan. Laugh at the inner monologue.