May 12

It's been a minute. Why?

Well I've been at it long enough to realize which environments I'm better at trading at and which I should be more selective and slow.

I traded incredible from an execution and outcome standpoint in January and March. March especially was a very volatile market with VIX 20+ driving large ranges on a daily basis. That is in very stark contrast to late April and early May which has been a slow grind up.

When the market is volatile the setups appear more frequently AND the move end up becoming quicker. These are two very great benefits for a trader like me who is less patient.

I guess a dumb analogy would be surfing during rougher conditions. Larger waves are coming more frequently. While actually surfing is easier in calm conditions, when I'm used to ever frequent waves that are meaningful large and more fulfilling to ride, it's very hard to switch gears. The waves are easier, less volatile, more steady, longer rides are required to match the fulfillment. But, if I'm taking every wave, expecting a quick, rough, steep ride but the environment is calm, I'm going to take a lot of poor waves- probably tire myself out by the time the right wave comes.

I've learned this lesson the hard way, but it has implanted and so until we get more volatile, I'm less actively trading. Plus, the long term portfolio is doing it's job. It's the choppy/down conditions that I excel at and can actually provide a balance to a declining long term portfolio.

The setups are the same. Execution is the same. My performance, however, is not great in calm conditions.

I'm focusing on saving mental and financial capital while spending time backtesting my edge to compound confidence to ensure I execute when conditions are more favorable.

Also, I'm incredibly busy and excited by my other job.

I'll be back soon. Whether or not you're actually there or not.

Rishi