February 26, 2026

Okay, it's been a minute. Why?

Well the beginning of the month I was not in a great headspace and gave away my best month ever in January. The only reason it hasn't been worse is I withdrew most of the profit from January. Early Feb tilted it back. Then as the cycle goes. Got serious.

Here's the things I've learned that I somehow need to imprint in my brain:

• With ATM cons and a proper 10m setup I don't need more than 5 contracts to move the needle

• There is absolutely never a reason to average down. Even if it would've worked out, any single trade is inconsequential in the long term -- Unless I oversize, then it's disastrous, eventually.

• Not every move that happens or that I anticipated is the right move.

• Candle CLOSES are the only thing that matter. It's important to react, not predict. React to the close; I cannot think it's going to close a certain way.

• Missing a move is far better than being early to a trade.

• What is the probable direction based on the 10m? Wait, wait, wait for pivots and only then zoom into the 3m.

• 3m CR|E is needed

• Stop to think why am I taking an action?

Today, I came to the charts late. I saw a strong move down. We were at the put trigger and I decided that we needed to pullback first. I sought out the signs of a reversal. As it didn't reverse I convinced myself I was too early, and added. Then I got burned, badly.

But, it then led to literally my best trade ever from a patience and execution standpoint.

First the dumb trade:

The extra frustrated thing is I zoomed out incredibly far on the 4h and it was evident to me that it was more likely to head down than up. We were at previous resistance and failed to make a new high.

I get to the charts at 9:40a. A very clear loss of the 48e. Not quite down to the put trigger. I immediately clung to the idea that we were far from the PDH/PDC and there for would likely bounce off the put trigger and head up --- classic predicting.

Then I saw what I wanted to see. The beginnings of a 3CR. Heading down, but the candle closed just around the PCL. 692 clear support after two candles. However, the 10m candle was large momentum and there's no need to be early. If we did in fact get a bullish engulfing as I was expecting then I could get in there with 692 support as my stop loss. Instead I got it quickly. It's not that I chased. It's that I didn't fully think through the trade. I didn't have a plan. So, when we did close below 692, I didn't exit. I convinced myself I was just early and it was going to do what I expected.

For the next 30 mins we chopped sideways. But again I kept "seeing" the signs of a reversal I wanted to see. And, so I added more. I was painfully wrong.

If I had stayed patient on the 10m... We lost the put trigger. We lost the 200e. We continue to push down until the bottom fell out. I finally exited at the -618.

What happened next though was my greatest display of patience and execution ever. And, it came from having a very clear thesis. We were crazy extended and it was likely we'd get a pullback to the ribbon. But, given the momentum I didn't want to take calls. Instead I said I'd wait for - as I should always - the 3CRE - near the 10m ribbon.

This was around 1030a I decided no matter what I'm going to ignore what I could've made on scalping calls up to the ribbon and instead just wait wait wait for a move back down with clear trigger.

Here's what the ascent looked like:

1. I finally saw a very clear bottom. At open I was looking for and creating a support and setup that wasn't there. Support was temporarily there, but no real 3CRE.

   1. First we have the bullish engulfing tweezer bottom. But, the next candle breached the low. We the continued down but on close held the previous wicks. THEN, we got the proper sign for reversal, a hammer signaling morning star reversal. A real hammer with 5 straight candles of a level being defended. So many minutes of clear support AND 3CRE.

2. I wanted to switch my thinking to calls because we did finally get the reversal pattern. But, given the momentum I just didn't want to get knifed. My plan was to wait wait wait until 3cre on the 3m.

3. 10:57 was the first red close. Leading into that, ever move down I was trying to detect the start of the reversal. But, in reality I just have to wait for the candle close before thinking on what to do. There is always so much time. I HAVE TO REMEMBER THIS.

4. We continued higher. Again, I kept wanting to short, but there was no setup. Then I was really tempted to enter at $10/con. Because the -618 and 10m8e were holding as resistance. However, still no 3CRE.

5. Then worse we ripped into the ribbon. The 3m21e flipped. I started to think we would head higher. But, we finally got what seemed like a reversal. Evening star reversal. However, I didn't wait for the candle close which is where it became evident the the 1st candle low of the evening star reversal held as support. So no reversal.

6. Luckily, I very much FULLY ACCEPTED THE LOSS. I would not exit until a close above the previous high. We held the 3m8e 2x. Wicked above the previous high and stalled. I was able to stay in the trade because there was actually and finally a setup on the 10m...

Momentum was slowing. PA getting tighter. 2 10m rejections of the 10m13e. Which on the 3m was also an M with divergence. A true 10m setup with 3m entry. Of course I was already in the trade but I didn't exit!

Here on the 3m is where I got in. I entered at the arrow for $6.8. We drew down all the way to $4.3. If I waited or just entered 1... I could've loaded more cons at the better entry point.

Once we couldn't breach higher and the bear flag was hilariously apparent I then knew we head back down. Price never goes straight up. Especially on the 10m with wild moves we like to put in divergences and trap before continuation.

Now the part where I can improve once I actually get my entries and patience consistent. Holding to my TP.

I'm so worried about a big reversal when in reality... my patience to enter proved it takes so much time and trapping to turn around. I exited half at $9.5 but waiting just 2 more minutes I exited at $12.5. Given there was no 3CRE I could've just held and waited for my TP. Eventually I did get all out except for 1 contract.

And, here's where I took the leap.

Again I was in at $6.8. My top exit was 12.3. So, yes I could've just exited the runner at 12.3 also and collected $500. But, the PA didn't justify it. I put in instructions that either we get a close above the 3m21e or we hit 6866. I entered those instructions at 12p.

We had a wick up to the 3m21e and strong bearish engulfing that rejected the 21. Then we had another scary rip up off of support above the 21e but then rejected. Premium dipped perfectly to my originally entry of $6.7 before then dropping 26 points to my exit at 6866 (which turned out to be the bottom). I exited that last con for $16. Was it worth risking 6 to make an additional 4? No, but it was also a runner. And, I just wanted to prove I could let the computer take me out and I walk away. Which if I didn't walk away that'd be an hour of wasted time. Plus I know with absolutely certainty I would've overridden my instructions and sold for breakeven on either of those two rips into the ribbon.

In reality those were actually great, great places to add puts. Which again goes to the idea that I cannot focus on making the most of any individual trade. I just have to wait for the PA. Execute. Exit. Then wait again. Would've been just as easy to exit my position completely then re add on the sold rips into the 3m ribbon.

The mindset was clear:

• I'm not going to 'miss' the trade, I can just wait for the next one

• No matter how much I'm worried I'm going to be late to the trade, I will wait for candle closes and confirmation

• I will wait for an obvious 3CRE trigger.

  • I need a thesis, the right level AND 3cre confirmation

How do I actually do this every time? I waited, waited, and waited some more. Then I chased but waited long enough to have conviction and just fomo'd into the trade. I can do this. I proved it.

I think the catalyst to the clear thinking was the apathy towards losing money. I had already lost a lot, what 20% more. I fully accepted the loss. And, then I could see clearly. I accepted the loss and refused to take a suboptimal trade.

Fine, I'm willing to truly lose the trade as long as I wait, wait, wait until a clear and obvious trade.

Can I be clear AND wait long enough to repeat this picture perfect trade?

I will. I can.

I need to constantly stop myself and ask Why? Why am I taking this action? What is the rationale? Am I predicting or am I reacting? What are the probabilities on the 10m? Where are the previous pivots?

I just have to be patient and viscerally believe that I cannot miss a trade. I know this, but how can I keep it from clogging my mind.

I skipped the mean reversion up to the ribbon and instead waited for the crystal clear 3m reversal at a 10m level that allowed for a larger move.

Speaking of... If I had bought ATM cons... instead of contracts 25 points OTM.

Equivalent entry would've been $15 (instead of $6.8), drawdown to $10 vs $4.3 -- so essentially the same loss per con -- but exits would've been 23 (instead of 9.5) and 27 (instead of 12). Greatly more on a per con basis meaning I don't need as many! Also, the runner would've dipped only to $18 (instead of break even) and auto exited at $35!

ATM requires less cons, equal downside per con, greater upside, and less dramatic pullbacks!

ATM. Fewer cons. Take profit. Repeat.

RULES

• Meditate that there is no missing a trade.

• Meditate on answering why to any action

• ATM Only

• Scale 1 then 3-5 cons MAX

• NO. AVERAGING DOWN. Take loss, next trade.

• Candle closes only.

• Wait for trigger at 10m level.