April 18, 2025

With the market closed it's a great day to zoom out and see where we are and what are the potential scenarios from here.

The Weekly Time Frame

For the first time since October 2023, we are firmly below the 48e and in a clear down trend. Since then the Weekly 21 was acting as support, but that failed in early March, and flipped to resistance when tested in the last week of March.

Price became extremely extended on it's way to the yearly -1.168 ATR Level, bounced of the W200 to retest the ribbon. This past week the ribbon held as resistance but lower lows have not

been made.

The Daily Time Frame

The daily chart is very clearly in a down trend putting in LLs and LHs. The ribbon and more specifically the D21 are acting as clear resistance. This week the D21 kept price from moving up, while previous support of 5220 held.

Resistance is D21 / Position Put / 5450

Support is Position -786 / 5220

The bias is clearly down, so if I was trading the daily chart, I'd look for lower time frame holds at key resistance areas to enter puts. Core exits would be at support. If support were to break, the next levels down are Position -1 at 5110, key psych of 5000, and the previous low of 4835. Runners would be exited at each of those levels.

The daily bias cannot be shifted up until a clear break of the D48.

On the 4h and hourly charts we can see a W bottom with the neckline acting as support and last month's low acting as resistance. A flip on the hourly would require a strong push over the H48, a retest of support, with core exits at the previous month's low. But, for now the bias is down on the hourly, but with low risk / reward given how close we are to support.